Forex News Analysis For US Core Retail Sales 04/16/12
We´ll be getting the U.S. Core Retail Sales (and Retail Sales) figure out
tomorrow. As high impact news releases are concerned, Retail Sales make up about
2/3 of U.S. GDP (Gross Domestic Product); Core Retail Sales report excludes Auto
sales which comprises 20% of total retail sales. Therefore, we are more focused
on daily consumer spending on goods found in such places as department stores,
gas stations, and restaurants.
Here´s the forecast:8:30am (NY Time) US Core
Retail Sales Forecast 0.6% Previous 0.9%
ACTION: 1.0% BUY USDJPY / -0.1% BUY EURUSD
DEFINITION:“(Retail Sales Core) Derivative of Retail Sales that excludes the Automobile Sales component. Automobile Sales make up roughly 25% of Retail Sales, but they can be very volatile from month to month and can distort the picture. Retail Sales with the exclusion of this volatile component is thought to be a better indicator of the underlying trend in consumer spending.”
The Trade PlanThe plan to trade this release is straight forward. We are going to wait for 1.0% release or better to BUY USD/JPY, or a -0.1% or worse to BUY EURUSD. If we get a in-between release, we´ll need to look at the pre-release market condition and sentiment in order to make a decision, or just stay out of the market altogether.
The Market
Retail Sales in March probably rose moderately judging from recent economic data, however the gain should be limited as March NFP came out 85K less than forecast… With the rise in uncertainty over US economic recovery, if we get another disappointing Retail Sales release today, we should see significant weakness in the USD as speculation should rise for the Feds to announce some sort of QE in the near future.
Additional ThoughtsSince both releases (Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales) are scheduled together, if we get a conflict in the releases, we should stay out regardless whether or not we get our tradable deviation.
BESTSELLER BOOKS
NEW --- Stephen King ---- 11/22/63
BESTSELLER MUSIC
ADELE ----- 21
ACTION: 1.0% BUY USDJPY / -0.1% BUY EURUSD
DEFINITION:“(Retail Sales Core) Derivative of Retail Sales that excludes the Automobile Sales component. Automobile Sales make up roughly 25% of Retail Sales, but they can be very volatile from month to month and can distort the picture. Retail Sales with the exclusion of this volatile component is thought to be a better indicator of the underlying trend in consumer spending.”
The Trade PlanThe plan to trade this release is straight forward. We are going to wait for 1.0% release or better to BUY USD/JPY, or a -0.1% or worse to BUY EURUSD. If we get a in-between release, we´ll need to look at the pre-release market condition and sentiment in order to make a decision, or just stay out of the market altogether.
The Market
Retail Sales in March probably rose moderately judging from recent economic data, however the gain should be limited as March NFP came out 85K less than forecast… With the rise in uncertainty over US economic recovery, if we get another disappointing Retail Sales release today, we should see significant weakness in the USD as speculation should rise for the Feds to announce some sort of QE in the near future.
Additional ThoughtsSince both releases (Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales) are scheduled together, if we get a conflict in the releases, we should stay out regardless whether or not we get our tradable deviation.
BESTSELLER BOOKS
NEW --- Stephen King ---- 11/22/63
BESTSELLER MUSIC
ADELE ----- 21
Nessun commento:
Posta un commento