Australia Employment Change is similar to
U.S. NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) and Canada Employment Change,
this is an economic indicator for the Employment Changes in
Australia, here´s the forecast:
9:30pm (NY Time) AU Employment Change
Forecast 6.5K Previous -15.4K
AU Unemployment Rate
Forecast 5.3% Previous 5.2%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 30.0K / SELL -20.0K
DEFINITION“Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation´s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP.”
The Trade PlanThe deviation that we are looking for is at least of 25K. Historically a 25K~30K of difference has produced about 40~50 pips of movement in the direction of the difference about 75% of the time. Expect to see the effect of this news to last minimum 45 minutes to 2 hours; typical news effect should last under 2 hours. One other important news to pay attention to is the Unemployment Rate, which is expected to be at 5.3%. If we don´t get a conflict with the Employment Change, then we will proceed with the trading plan.
We´ll look to trade this using after news retracement trading method, we´ll wait for the market to retrace and stay out of the market during the release time. If we get a 30K of release, our bias will be to BUY AUD/USD; if we get a -20K of release, our bias will be to SELL AUD/USD. We´ll only enter after we see a decent retracement from the initial spike.
The MarketWith RBA keeping its interest rate at 4.25% during the last meeting but definitely opening the door for further easing, combining the fact that China’s growth has moderated in recently month, I believe AUD will remain neutral to bearish; however, with recent NFP release out of US showing that U.S. economy is still under considerable pressure, and that further stimulus may be needed, AUDUSD should remain well supported, therefore I’d be looking to BUY for the long/medium term, but SELL for the short term.
Additional ThoughtsAUD may not retrace much during lower liquidity hours, therefore we may have to get in as soon as possible on a strong release. A possible spike trading.
Book : The Little Book of Economics - Greg Ip
Book : Trading for a Living - Alexander Elder
Book : The Intelligent Investor - Benjamin Graham
NEW : CLICKBANK COMMISSIONS, I used to pull $789 from Clickbank last night. Go ahead and use it too, it's so quick and easy...
Nessun commento:
Posta un commento