April 30, 2012
Canada´s monthly GDP report will be released today. Here´s the trading
forecast:
8:30am NY Time Canada GDP m/m Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.1%
ACTION: USD/CAD SELL 0.5% / BUY -0.1%
DefinitionGDP is defined (by wikipedia) as: “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.”
The Trade PlanLet´s look to SELL USD/CAD if we get a 0.5% or better release, or we’ll BUY USDCAD on a -0.1% or worse release. With recent uncertainty in the commodity space, a strong fundamental such as the GDP figure may be the catalyst we need to see more volatility in CAD.
Primary currency pair: USD/CAD
Forecast: 0.2
Previous: 0.1
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -0.3 [BUY]
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +0.2 [SELL]
If Canadian GDP m/m comes out at -0.1 or more negative ( -0.3 trigger), USD/CAD should go up by about 15 pips. If it comes out at +0.4 or higher ( +0.2 trigger), USD/CAD should go down by about 15 pips.
I treat it more like a scalp. I don't expect big spikes but it should be enough to make a few pips. If we get +/- 0.4 deviation (such deviations happened in the past so it's possible), then obviously we might see a nice spike. If you are not interested in scalping, then set up triggers to +/- 0.4 but chances for a trade would be say 10%.
Based on 24 estimates, median estimate is 0.2% and the average estimate is 0.2%. The highest estimate is +0.3% (one estimate). The lowest estimate is 0.0% (one estimate). There are ten estimates for 0.1% and twelve for 0.2%. One standard deviation is +/- 0.1%.
Last month it came out exactly as expected so it was a no trade.
Two months ago it came out at 0.4 vs 0.3 expected so it was a no trade.
Three months ago it came out at -0.1 vs +0.2 expected, and we saw almost 20 pip spike on USD/CAD.
Four months ago it came out at 0.0 vs. 0.2 expected but we saw very small spike.
Five months ago it came out exactly as expected.
Six months ago it came out almost as expected.
Seven months ago it came out almost as expected so it was no trade.
Eight months ago it came out at 0.2 vs 0.3 expected so it was a no trade although we saw about 20 pip spike.
Nine months ago it came out at -0.3% vs +0.1% expected, and we saw about 30 pip spike, and about 80 pip move within 30 minutes. It was a good price action but also a good deviation.
Other months we saw 0.1 and 0.2 deviations and some price actions too but nothing really impressive although you shouldn't lose money on that.
Currently, it's a small report so either we get a good deviation or we stay away.
BOOKS BESTSELLER
Currency Trading in the Forex and Futures Markets - Carley Garner - EUR 26,55
Sentiment in the Forex Market: Indicators and Strategies to Profit from Crowd Behavior and Market Extremes (Wiley Trading) - Jamie Saettele - EUR 45,91
8:30am NY Time Canada GDP m/m Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.1%
ACTION: USD/CAD SELL 0.5% / BUY -0.1%
DefinitionGDP is defined (by wikipedia) as: “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.”
The Trade PlanLet´s look to SELL USD/CAD if we get a 0.5% or better release, or we’ll BUY USDCAD on a -0.1% or worse release. With recent uncertainty in the commodity space, a strong fundamental such as the GDP figure may be the catalyst we need to see more volatility in CAD.
Primary currency pair: USD/CAD
Forecast: 0.2
Previous: 0.1
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -0.3 [BUY]
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +0.2 [SELL]
If Canadian GDP m/m comes out at -0.1 or more negative ( -0.3 trigger), USD/CAD should go up by about 15 pips. If it comes out at +0.4 or higher ( +0.2 trigger), USD/CAD should go down by about 15 pips.
I treat it more like a scalp. I don't expect big spikes but it should be enough to make a few pips. If we get +/- 0.4 deviation (such deviations happened in the past so it's possible), then obviously we might see a nice spike. If you are not interested in scalping, then set up triggers to +/- 0.4 but chances for a trade would be say 10%.
Based on 24 estimates, median estimate is 0.2% and the average estimate is 0.2%. The highest estimate is +0.3% (one estimate). The lowest estimate is 0.0% (one estimate). There are ten estimates for 0.1% and twelve for 0.2%. One standard deviation is +/- 0.1%.
Last month it came out exactly as expected so it was a no trade.
Two months ago it came out at 0.4 vs 0.3 expected so it was a no trade.
Three months ago it came out at -0.1 vs +0.2 expected, and we saw almost 20 pip spike on USD/CAD.
Four months ago it came out at 0.0 vs. 0.2 expected but we saw very small spike.
Five months ago it came out exactly as expected.
Six months ago it came out almost as expected.
Seven months ago it came out almost as expected so it was no trade.
Eight months ago it came out at 0.2 vs 0.3 expected so it was a no trade although we saw about 20 pip spike.
Nine months ago it came out at -0.3% vs +0.1% expected, and we saw about 30 pip spike, and about 80 pip move within 30 minutes. It was a good price action but also a good deviation.
Other months we saw 0.1 and 0.2 deviations and some price actions too but nothing really impressive although you shouldn't lose money on that.
Currently, it's a small report so either we get a good deviation or we stay away.
BOOKS BESTSELLER
Currency Trading in the Forex and Futures Markets - Carley Garner - EUR 26,55
Sentiment in the Forex Market: Indicators and Strategies to Profit from Crowd Behavior and Market Extremes (Wiley Trading) - Jamie Saettele - EUR 45,91
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