US ADP NFP EMPLOYMENT

NEWS TRADING
Wednesday April 4, 2012


[8:15am NY Time]



ADP or Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP) is releasing
it´s own estimate for the private sectors of NFP (Nonfarm
Payroll). This is a high impact release and it´s followed
by currency traders as they look for hints on Friday´s NFP
official release. Here´s the forecast:

8:15am NY Time US ADP NFP Change
Forecast 205K Previous 216K
ACTION: 260K BUY USDJPY/ 150K SELL USDJPY



The Trade PlanI usually don´t trade this release but I use it for future trend references. However, if the deviation of 50K is actually hit, the market probably wont have a problem pushing it, and this will undoubtedly change market perception for the NFP release; therefore its best to be around your computer during the release time rather than find out what happened hours later and potentially miss the entire movement.
With the above being said, we´ll be looking for a deviation of 50K, so if we get 260K or better release, I´d be looking to BUY USD/JPY; if we get a 150K or worse, then I´d be looking to SELL AUDUSD or AUDJPY on risk aversion trades…


The MarketOnce again market is expecting a strong private payroll growth as reflected in the forecast today. With this being the first real data that helps to predict Friday’s NFP, market will probably react sharply to this release if we get a huge surprise, especially if we get a strong figure.  The Private Payroll number for Friday’s NFP is expected to be around 233K, which corresponds to the ADP release today, and any surprise (better or worse) should move the market.


Additional ThoughtsThe ADP NFP Employment Release is always considered as a high impact release because ADP is the largest private payroll processing provider in the U.S., traders in general pay more attention to this release, especially during NFP week. ADP usually releases its version of Non-Farm Payroll numbers before the actual NFP based on it´s proprietary private payroll data.
This release could start a pre-news trend for Friday´s NFP. Pay attention also to both ISM PMI’s alone with Monster’s Index & Challenger’s Job Cuts report for a complete picture.

Book : Steve Jobs : A Biografy - Walter Isaacson

Book : The Queen 's English and How to Use It - Bernard C. Lamb


CASH BACK FOREX : Earn with your Broker