US GDP

2012/06/28
Release Time: 08:30 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: USD/JPY
Forecast: 1.9
Previous: 1.9



Based on 75 estimates, both median and average estimates are 1.9%. The highest estimate is 2.3% (one estimate), then 2.2% (two estimates), then 2.1% (five estimates). The lowest estimate is 1.5% (two estimates), then 1.7% (six estimates), then 1.8% (four estimates). One standard deviation is 0.1%.

That report doesn't matter right now. It's the third release so usually it doesn't deviate at all. Even if it deviates, we don't see big spikes, at least on forex. 


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NZ GDP

June 20, 2012

We’ll be getting the quarterly release of New Zealand’s GDP, and because it is a quarterly release, market tends to pay more attention to it, thus more volatility is expected. Here’s forecast:
5:45pm NZ GDP q/q Forecast 0.4% Previous 0.3%
DEVIATION: 0.3% (BUY NZD 0.7% / SELL NZD 0.1%)



Definition“Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of all goods and services produced by the economy. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. GDP is the broadest measure of activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health. To foreign investors, a strong economy is viewed favorably because it spurs investment opportunities in the domestic stock and bond markets. More importantly, the central bank is more likely to raise interest rates in the face of a strong and growing economy. The combination of these effects can have a large impact on the demand for the nation’s currency.”


The Trade PlanThe expected consensus number is 0.4%, and the safe deviation is 0.3%, in the event it is hit, we should see market move 40 pips within the hour.
We’ll be looking to BUY the NZD if the release is at 0.7% or better, or we’ll SELL NZD is the release is 0.1% or worse. We’ll be using our standard after-news retracement trading method.

Recommended Pairs : NZDUSD, NZDCHF


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ACH15® Discovery: always 100% won transactions in FOREX market! - florin iacob - EUR 115,34


Your Guide To Making Money in Forex Trading: A General Idea Of Trading The Forex Plus Crucial Investing Tips On Currency Exchange Rates, Finding The ... Succeed And Make Money Fast In Forex Trading - Sandra V. Uy - EUR 12,36


Currency Trading in the Forex and Futures Markets - Carley Garner - EUR 28,74

US FOMC Interest Rate Decision

 June 20, 2012 

Today’s FOMC Meeting has the potential of once again changing the market sentiment for the USD for the medium term, especially considering the deterioration of U.S. economic recovery as indicted by the string recent less than forecasted economic data. 

With the new format of announcements in place, where FOMC will release a statement at 12:30pm followed a Press Conference at 2:15pm, giving onsite media members opportunities for live Q&A, where Bernanke could provide further elaboration to the burning question: To QE3 Or Not To QE3?
With that being said, keep in mind that Operation Twist is expected to finalize in this month, so assuming that there won’t be any pauses between easing, FOMC may delay the announcement for some forms of QE next month, thus making today’s meeting a bit less likely surprising, although there is certainly a possibility for Bernnake to “hint” the market for any future Fed action (i.e. QE3…)

Considering also the fact that the last 3 months average NFP figure is less than 88K, some Fed officials are already “preparing” for the possibility for easing, I’d say QE3 is definitely on the table.  Here are some notable comments from Fed officials after last meeting:

• (US) Fed’s Evans (non-voting member): Reiterates support to extend ‘operation twist’- More aggressive monetary policy would cut the Unemployment Rate.
• (US) Fed’s Lockhart (voting member, dovish):Reiterates that the Fed may need to provide more aid – Have an open mind as far as the next FOMC rating.
• (US) Fed’s Williams (voting member, dovish): Concerns about Europe are threathening the global financial system; stress tests suggest US banks are resilient. US growth remains moderate.
• (US) Fed’s Evans (alternate, dove): Fed is prepared to act; Chairman Bernanke has stated that clearly today. Employment trends are not strong enough; Need to gain 200-300K net new jobs per month. Fed can improve upon forward guidance; Reiterates call for numeric (rather than calendar) targets such as 7% unemployment rate.
  
  
  
  So here’s the forecast for the actual rate decision:
  12:30pm US FOMC Interest Rate Forecast 0.25% Previous 0.25% (Both Unchanged)
  2:15pm US FOMC Press Conference
  
  
  
  There is a Live Webcast available for the Press Conference, you can watch it here:
  http://www.ustream.tv/federalreserve
  
  
  Recommended Pairs : EURUSD, USDJPY
  
  
  
  Update 6-19-2012 11:50am EST(US) Goldman Economist Hatzius: reiterates Goldman expects there will be some form of monetary easing announced at tomorrow’s Fed meeting. Fed will most likely ease monetary policy, reduce its GDP forecast at the meeting. Fed may further expand its balance sheet and/or expand operation twist.
  
  
  
  

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  Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately. Labor market conditions have improved in recent months; the unemployment rate has declined but remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment have continued to advance. Despite some signs of improvement, the housing sector remains depressed. Inflation has picked up somewhat, mainly reflecting higher prices of crude oil and gasoline. However, longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

  I’ll be looking for along the same lines of language acknowledging positive growth, and look for any changes on inflation expectations.
  

  Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up gradually. Consequently, the Committee anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline gradually toward levels that it judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The increase in oil and gasoline prices earlier this year is expected to affect inflation only temporarily, and the Committee anticipates that subsequently inflation will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate.   

  I’d focus on the phrase “and then to pick up gradually” and “significant downside risks to the economic outlook” as the former one was added last statement as a message of Fed’s confidence in recovery, although things have changed recently, so any changes to this could mean that Fed’s outlook is changing… The latter phrase, the use of the word “significant” is the focus and we’ll continue to monitor it.  If “significant” is changed to “moderate” then it is a good sign for risk appetite; on the other hand, if it is changed to “extreme”, then it is good for risk aversion…
  

  To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy. In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions–including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run–are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.   

  I expect no real changes to the paragraph above, and if the Fed changes the period from late 2014, expect market to react as any date ahead of 2014 will signal strong USD, and vice versa on a date after 2014…
  

  The Committee also decided to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.   

  I believe the above paragraphs are going to be the focus of this statements are investors are looking at possible changes to Fed stimulatory measures…  Here are some potential scenarios:
  

  1. Extension of Operation Twist beyond June 2012 – USD could become weaker and Equity Market will probably rally.
  2. Announcements of New Quantitative Easing – USD will be weaker and market will rally on selling USD.
  3. No change on current program, letting it expire in June – USD will probably be neutral and possibly gain in the hours to come, as no change means it will take at least 2-1/2 months before any QE is in place (as the Fed usually prepares the market ahead of time before announcing a QE measure… so assuming the Fed is going to prepare the market during the next meeting on August 1, 2012, the actual announcement will then be on September 13, 2012…)

  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

 

US Core CPI

June 14, 2012

We´ll be trading US Core CPI m/m release tomorrow. CPI or Consumer Price Index, also known as the “true cost of living”, is what drives Central Banks to raise/cut interest rate, therefore this release will be widely watched. Here´s the forecast for the CPI:
8:30am (NY Time) US Core CPI m/m Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.2%
DEVIATION: 0.2% (BUY USD 0.4% / SELL USD 0.0%



DEFINITION:“CPI, Consumer Price Index, is a statistical estimate of the movement of the prices of goods and services bought for consumption purposes by households. Its computation uses price data collected for a sample of goods and services from a sample of sales outlets in a sample of locations for a sample of times and estimates of the shares of the different expenditures in the total covered by the index which are usually based upon expenditure data obtained for sampled periods from a sample of households wikipedia).” It is also known as the “True Cost of Living”.


The Trade PlanOur minimum tradable deviation for this release is 0.2%; if the release number (core) decreases to a minimum 0.0% then we will SELL USD; if the core release is 0.4%, we’ll BUY USD. Historically even at a difference of 0.1%, market is likely to exaggerate its move, therefore if our tradable release is hit, there is about 80% of chance market will move 50 pips within the next 90 minutes or so.

Recommended Pairs : EURUSD , GBPUSD


EURUSD
Resistances : Weekly 1.274 , Daily 1.267 , Hourly 1.261
Supports      : Weekly 1.2325 , Daily 1.2445 , Hourly 1.252


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ANGELA  MERKEL  :  "A little 'cleansing will be good for Europe"

 

NZ RBNZ Interest Rate

June 13, 2012

5:00pm (NY Time) RBNZ Rate Decision Forecast 2.50% Previous 2.50%

DEVIATION: 0.25% (BUY NZD 2.75% / SELL NZD 2.25%)

RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) will be releasing its interest rate decision today and it is widely expected that Gov. Bollard will announce that No rate change today…

Definition:The OCR (Official Cash Rate of New Zealand) influences the price of borrowing money in New Zealand and provides the Reserve Bank with a means of influencing the level of economic activity and inflation. An OCR is a fairly conventional tool by international standards.


The Trade Plan
Current forecast from economists surveyed by Bloomberg agree that RBNZ is likely to leave the official rate at 2.5% during this meeting; however, in the unlikely event that Gov. Bollard surprises the market and hike rates to 2.75% or higher, we should see an immediate strong demand in the NZD which is a great opportunity to spike trade BUY NZD/USD.

Recommended Pairs : NZDUSD, GBPNZD

BOOKS


Attacking Currency Trends: How to Anticipate and Trade Big Moves in the Forex Market (Wiley Trading Series) - Greg Michalowski - EUR 39,52


Currency Trading in the Forex and Futures Markets - Carley Garner - EUR 28,74


Insider Forex Secrets: Cash In On the Trillion Dollar Market! - Faith Flores - EUR 36,41

 

US Core Retail Sales

June 13, 2012

8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.1%
DEVIATION: 0.5% (BUY USD 0.6% / SELL USD -0.4%)

We´ll be getting the U.S. Core Retail Sales (and Retail Sales) figure out tomorrow. As high impact news releases are concerned, Retail Sales make up about 2/3 of U.S. GDP (Gross Domestic Product); Core Retail Sales report excludes Auto sales which comprises 20% of total retail sales. Therefore, we are more focused on daily consumer spending on goods found in such places as department stores, gas stations, and restaurants.

DEFINITION:“(Retail Sales Core) Derivative of Retail Sales that excludes the Automobile Sales component. Automobile Sales make up roughly 25% of Retail Sales, but they can be very volatile from month to month and can distort the picture. Retail Sales with the exclusion of this volatile component is thought to be a better indicator of the underlying trend in consumer spending.”


The Trade PlanThe plan to trade this release is straight forward. We are going to wait for 0.8% release or better to BUY USD, or a -0.2% or worse to SELL USD. If we get a in-between release, we´ll need to look at the pre-release market condition and sentiment in order to make a decision, or just stay out of the market altogether.

Recommended Pairs  : USDJPY or EURUSD.


 USDJPY
RESISTENCES :Weekly 80.55 ; Daily 80.15 ; Hourly 79.75
SUPPORTS       :Weekly 78.65  ; Daily 79.2  ; Hourly 79.5


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Getting Started in Currency Trading: Winning in Today's FOREX Market - Michael Duane Archer - EUR 13,49


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Christine Lagarde : '' Three months to save the euro ''

The FMI director interviewed on CNN. Output of Greece by the euro: "It's a matter of political will".

If you need to take further measures to save the euro should also be launched soon, "in less than three months." And the output or not the euro Greece at this point is a "matter of political determination." He said the director general of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Christine Lagarde in an interview with CNN's Christiane Amanpour. Asked if he shared the prediction of the financier George Soros, according to which Europe has only three months to save the euro, Lagarde took time to respond and then said that if they serve other interventions should be "taken more quickly. .. in less than three months, I suppose. "After another short pause, the Number 1 IMF has made ​​clear: "I'm not setting a deadline within which the whole situation is to disentangle." And then he explained: "The markets believe that it is happening too slowly and this is obviously the message they send."

The public accounts are healed "gradually and firmly," but this should not be "close the belt where everyone is talking about," said Lagarde instead about the ongoing debate on growth and austerity. But you are not biased about a possible exit from the euro in Greece: "It will be a matter of political determination." In the interview the Director of the IMF has also called German Chancellor Angela Merkel a "strong leader and a courageous woman" in a world dominated by men.

The euro area Member States, including those with triple A (Germany, Luxembourg, Finland and Netherlands), are at risk declassaemento if they fail to resolve the current crisis. A ring the alarm bell and Ed Parker, the number one rating agency Fitch. "If you can not see the light at the early end of the tunnel-in-emphasizes the risks of a collapse of the euro will rise."




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CA IVEY PMI

June 7, 2012

The Canada IVEY PMI will be released today. This release is considered a leading indicator that receives much attention from traders; especially when its released early in the week before the Employment report. Here’s the forecast:
10:00am (NY Time) CA IVEY PMI Forecast 51.8 Previous 52.7
DEVIATION: 3.0 (BUY CAD 54.5 / SELL CAD 49.0)


DEFINITION
The Ivey Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers from all sectors of the economy, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. To produce the index, purchasing managers are surveyed on a number of subjects including employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Traders watch these surveys closely because purchasing managers, by virtue of their jobs, have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.


The Trade PlanOur tradable deviation factor is around 3.0. IVEY PMI is usually tradable when its released before the Canadian Employment Change report. The IVEY PMI is a leading indicator used to predict future trends. The Employment Change is a lagging indicator that is usually two months behind. Therefore, the IVEY PMI report should indicate which direction the employment report will go in the future…
We’ll look to BUY CAD if we get 54.5 or more. We’ll look to SELL CAD if we get 49.0 or less.


Recommended Pairs : USDCAD, CADJPY


USDCAD.
Resistances : Weekly 1.035  , Daily 1.031  , Hourly 1.0295
Supports       : Weekly 1.021  , Daily 1.0235 , Hourly 1.0265




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Expert Advisor Programming: Creating Automated Trading Systems in MQL for MetaTrader 4 - Andrew R. Young- EUR 24,55 
 

The Little Book of Currency Trading: How to Make Big Profits in the World of Forex (Little Books. Big Profits) - Kathy Lien- EUR 12,93


Forex Essentials in 15 Trades: The Global-View.com Guide to Successful Currency Trading (Wiley Trading) - John M. Bland - EUR 46,16

 

UK BOE Interest Rate

June 7, 2012

BOE (Bank of England) will be rendering its interest rate decision today, and it would provide strong volatility in the market if BOE´s final decision turns out to be a surprise, here´s the forecast:
7:00am (NY Time) UK Official Bank Rate Forecast 0.50% Previous 0.50%
APT (Asset Purchasing Target) Forecast 325B Previous 325B
DEVIATION: 0.25% interest rate / 25B Pound for APT
(BUY GBP @ +0.75% rate / SELL GBP @ +350B APT)



Definition:(From Wikipedia) The official bank rate (also called the Bank of England base rate[1] or BOEBR) is the interest rate that the Bank of England charges Banks for secured overnight lending. It is the British Government’s key interest rate for enacting monetary policy.[2] It is more analogous to the US discount rate than to the Federal funds rate. The security for the lending can be any of a list of eligible securities (commonly Gilts) and are transacted as overnight repurchase agreements. When an announcement of the change in interest rates is made this is the rate the Bank of England is changing. Changes are recommended by the Monetary Policy Committee and enacted by the Governor.

The Trade PlanIn the extremely unlikely event BOE hikes rate to 0.75%, we´ll buy GBP immediately on a spike trade. Because of the level of this surprise, I think we´ll see a strong trend change for GBP in the next few weeks, so we should BUY and keep a small portion for larger gains… On the other hand, if we get a surprise increase to 350B or more in the APT or better known as quantitative easing, it would send an even more bearish signal to the market, and we should SELL GBP immediately.

Recommended Pairs : GBPUSD, GBPJPY

GBPJPY
Resistences : Weekly 124.1  , Daily 123.5  , Hourly 123
Supports      : Weekly 121.2  , Daily  121.95, Hourly 122.5

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Getting Started in Forex Trading Strategies - Michael Duane Archer - EUR 13,49


Sentiment in the Forex Market: Indicators and Strategies to Profit from Crowd Behavior and Market Extremes (Wiley Trading) - Jamie Saettele - EUR 50,07


Expert Advisor Programming: Creating Automated Trading Systems in MQL for MetaTrader 4 - Andrew R. Young - EUR 24,55

UK Services PMI

June 7, 2012

We´ll be trading the UK Services Purchasing Manager Index today at 4:30am (NY Time). This is a leading indicator similar to the Manufacturing PMI that was released early this week, here´s the forecast:
4:28am (NY Time) UK Services PMI Forecast 52.5 Previous 53.3
Deviation: 2.5 ~ 3.5 (BUY GBP 55.0 / SELL GBP 49.9





DEFINITION:
The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) Services Purchasing Manager´s Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation´s currency. To produce the index, purchasing managers are surveyed on a number of subjects including employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Traders watch these surveys closely because purchasing managers, by virtue of their jobs, have early access to data about their company´s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.


The Services PMI is tradable with a minimum deviation of 2.5~3.5 between the forecast and the actual release. If we get at least 55.0 or better, we could see some demand in the GBP and we will consider BUYING GBP against weaker currencies. If we get a 49.9 or lower, GBP could weaken and we should look to SELL GBP against stronger currencies.

Recommended Pairs :  GBPUSD , GBPCHF

GBPUSD
Resistences  : Weekly 1.5605  , Daily 1.555  , Hourly 1.551

Supports       : Weekly 1.5325  , Daily  1.54   , Hourly 1.5445

BOOKS


EUR/GBP in a Nutshell: A Simple Guide on How to Trade the EUR/GBP in the Forex Market - Elena Sanchez - EUR 7,68


Making Money in Forex: Trade Like a Pro Without Giving Up Your Day Job (Wiley Trading) - Ryan O'Keefe - EUR 49,47


Currency Trading in the Forex and Futures Markets - Carley Garner - EUR 28,74


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AU Employment Change

June 6, 2012

Australia Employment Change is similar to U.S. NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) and Canada Employment Change, this is an economic indicator for the Employment Changes in Australia, here´s the forecast:
9:30pm (NY Time) AU Employment Change
Forecast 1.0K Previous 15.5K
AU Unemployment Rate
Forecast 5.1% Previous 4.9%
DEVIATION: 25K (BUY AUD @ +25K / SELL AUD @ -25K)



DEFINITION“Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation´s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP.”


The Trade PlanThe deviation that we are looking for is at least of 25K. Historically a 25K~30K of difference has produced about 40~50 pips of movement in the direction of the difference about 75% of the time. Expect to see the effect of this news to last minimum 45 minutes to 2 hours; typical news effect should last under 2 hours. One other important news to pay attention to is the Unemployment Rate, which is expected to be at 5.1%. If we don´t get a conflict with the Employment Change, then we will proceed with the trading plan.
We´ll look to trade this using after news retracement trading method, we´ll wait for the market to retrace and stay out of the market during the release time. If we get a +25K of release, our bias will be to BUY AUD against other currencies; if we get a -25K of release, our bias will be to SELL AUD against stronger currencies. We´ll only enter after we see a decent retracement from the initial spike and if we get those release numbers.

Recommended Pairs :  AUDUSD , AUDJPY

Resistances  :  Weekly 0.997 , Daily 0.9935 , Hourly 0.988

Supports      : Weekly 0.97    , Daily  0.9785 , Hourly 0.9825

EU ECB Interest Rate

ECB (European Central Bank) will be rendering its rate decision today, and it will have a pivotal short term impact on the Euro dollar. However, it is widely believed that ECB will keep rate unchanged at 1.00%… Here´s the forecast:
7:45am (NY Time) EU ECB Rate Decision Forecast 1.00% Previous 1.00%
Deviation: 0.25% (SELL EUR 0.75%)



Definition:The rate at which the European Central Bank (ECB) charges banks in EU member states to borrow money. The minimum bid rate is an important tool in the ECB’s monetary policy and changes in this rate affect other interest rates in the EU banking system. The Minimum Bid Rate is also the The lower limit to the interest rates at which counterparties may submit bids in variable rate tenders.; The Main Refinancing (Refi Rate) is the rate on the main refinancing operations, often referred to as the refi rate. The level is determined by the ECB Governing Council. The Deposit Rate is the Interest rate at which credit institutions may at all times place overnight deposits with the national central bank. The deposit rate is normally 100 basis points below the minimum bid rate, thereby setting a lower limit on short-term money market rates.


The Trade Plan
ECB rate decision comes in two part, the first one is the 7:45am rate announcement followed by the 8:30am Press Conference where ECB chief Draghi issues the official statement on this rate decision. Since it is extremely unlikely to get a surprise from ECB (we stand corrected as Draghi has surprised the market twice during his first three rate meetings), there is usually no volatility following this release.
However, in the unlikely event that ECB surprises the market by cutting rates 25 basis points or more, then expect market to go into shock and we should jump in immediately on a spike trade because no matter what the slippage or spread is, we will end up making positive pips. Of course, if ECB decides to leave rates unchanged at 1.00% as expected, then we should stay out of the market. Please follow the recommendations above ONLY if ECB surprises the market.


Here´s the link to watch the Webcast Live at 8:30am EST – Highly recommended!
http://www.ecb.int/press/tvservices/webcast/html/webcast_120503.en.html

AU GDP

June 5, 2012

Australia GDP is a quarterly release similar to the U.S. Advanced GDP or the UK Pre-lim release, but usually there is only one release per quarter, and it is scheduled about 65 days after the quarter ends. Since this is a quarterly release, it is a high impact release that may change the short term trend of AUD.
Here is the forecast:
9:30pm (NY Time) AU GDP q/q Forecast 0.5% Previous 0.4%
DEVIATION: 0.3% (BUY AUD 0.8% / SELL AUD 0.2%)



DEFINITION:
“GDP is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” In short, if you were to reduce the entire economy into a simple number, it would be the GDP.”


The Trade Plan
We´ll be looking for a deviation of 0.3% to trade this release. If we get 0.8% or better, then BUY AUD; however, if we get a 0.2% or worse, we´ll probably see AUD start to move downward and we should SELL AUD.

Recommended Pairs :  AUDUSD, AUDJPY


AUDUSD
Resistances : Weekly 0.9805 , Daily 0.977 , Hourly 0.974
Supports      : Weekly 0.958 , Daily  0.9675 , Hourly 0.9715

BOOKS


Making Money in Forex: Trade Like a Pro Without Giving Up Your Day Job (Wiley Trading) - Ryan O'Keefe - EUR 49,47



The Art of Effective Stop Placement in Forex, Futures and Stock Markets - Jim Wyckoff - EUR 15,70


Forex Price Action Scalping: an in-depth look into the field of professional scalping - Bob Volman - EUR 27,90

US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

June 5, 2012

ISM or Institute for Supply Management is releasing its PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) and its similar to the UK Services PMI as this release is targeting the services sectors. As a leading indicator, traders generally pay attention to this report for hints of economic trend.
10:00am NY Time US ISM NonManufact. PMI Forecast 53.7 Previous 53.5
Deviation: 2.5 (BUY USD 56.0 / SELL USD 51.0)



DEFINITION:The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Index measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation´s currency. To produce the index, purchasing managers are surveyed on a number of subjects including employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Traders watch these surveys closely because purchasing managers, by virtue of their jobs, have early access to data about their company´s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.


Trade PlanU.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is better known as the U.S. Services PMI; the current expectation is above the 50 level at 53.7. This figure indicates an expansion in the services sector where 50 is the medium point for the PMI. We´ll be using a deviation of around 2.5 points in order to trade this release. In the event that 56.0 is reached, we could see some USD strength and we should focus on trading against weaker currencies. If the opposite is true and a figure of 51.0 is released, expect to see weaker USD and we should trade with stronger currencies…
If our tradable releases are reached, there is a good expectation that the market will move 50 pips within the next 120 minutes.

Recommended Pairs  : EURUSD , USDJPY , NZDUSD


BOOKS


Attacking Currency Trends: How to Anticipate and Trade Big Moves in the Forex Market (Wiley Trading Series) - Greg Michalowski - EUR 39,52 
 

Sentiment in the Forex Market: Indicators and Strategies to Profit from Crowd Behavior and Market Extremes (Wiley Trading) - Jamie Saettele - EUR 50,07


Currency Trading in the Forex and Futures Markets - Carley Garner - EUR 28,74