US Existing Home Sales

February 21, 2013

US Existing Home Sales

US Existing Home Sales is expected to remain unchanged 

from the previous month. Here’s the forecast:

10:00am Existing Home Sales Forecast 4.91M Previous

 4.94M

DEVIATION: 0.4M / 400K (BUY USD 5.31 / SELL USD 

4.51M)

Definition:“Measures the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency because large purchases tend to be made by consumers that are optimistic and confident in their financial position. The sale of a home also triggers commissions for real estate agents, and often home owners will purchase goods such as appliances and furniture shortly after purchasing a home. Traders watch this report closely as it’s the month’s first demand-side housing indicator to be released.”

The Trade PlanBecause the Housing sector is one of the most foundamental components of the U.S. economy, this release will certainly cause some volatility in the market, especially if our tradable figures (+/- 400K) were hit. With the focus of world on the status of U.S. housing sector, this release may bring about a strong sentiment of risk appetite/aversion if our BUY/SELL trigger is hit…

If our buy tradable deviation is hit, or 5.31M figure is released, we should look to BUY USD after the release. If our sell tradable deviation is hit, or 4.51M figure is released, we should look to SELL USD.

Recommended Pairs : EURUSD, NZDUSD

USD/JPY - US Dollar / Yen

Resistances : : Weekly 93.85 ; Daily 93.5 ; Hourly 93.15

Supports : : Weekly 92.25 ; Daily 92.65 ; Hourly 92.8

BOOKS

Trading In The Clouds - Trading Stocks Using the Ichimoku Method - Mike Berry - 

Whether you are a professional trader or a relative new comer to investing, this book will allow you trade like the pros.

It provides you with all of the information needed to easily understand stock trading using the Ichimoku method. After reading the book - and it is a quick read & learn - you will be able to look at a stock chart and within seconds determine if the stock is a buy, sell or hold.

Take control of your current investments and be able to make wise decisions on future ones.

Ichimoku was developed in Japan and used by their traders since before World War II. Until now, this method has primarily been used by Foreign Exchange traders. This book, however, will show you how to utilize the Ichimoku method to analyze stocks.

So easy to learn, it will save you valuable time in your analysis. You won't need to do any spreadsheets, draw lines, or even do math. It's all visual.

Trading In The Clouds - Trading Stocks Using the Ichimoku Method - Mike Berry - EUR 3,60

Warning: This is pure hype...

Dear Traders,

It seems like every week there are

half a dozen new "can't fail" systems

released promising you can beat 

Betfair and the bookies and make

money while all the punters continue

to fail...

... and sadly, they're mostly all just

rehashed versions of a few old 

strategies and tactics punters have 

been using for years, none of which

work very well. 

That's why I was so excited to see Robert

Sawyer introduce something completely NEW...

and that's already making some incredible 

profits...

==>==>==>==> Click Here

... not only for him, but for other people

he's shown this method to, even 

people who have never before 

placed a regular "bet" in their life, 

online or offline. 

(PLUS this is 100% automated)...

... but it's not going to be around for long, 

so make this the week you ditch all the 

hyped-up "systems" and plug into this 

one remaining "unfair advantage" before

it's too late:

==>==>==>==> Click Quickly

To Your Success!

Markruinart.

UK CPI

February 12, 2013

UK CPI

We´ll be trading the UK Consumer Price Index (UK CPI) release at 4:30am NY Time today. We´ll be looking at the yearly release figure and the market could react with lots of volatility as CPI is the basic measurement of Inflation, therefore expect to see more exaggerated moves if we get a huge surprise release. Here is the forecast:

4:30am NY Time UK CPI y/y Forecast 2.7% Previous 2.7%

DEVIATION: 0.3% (BUY GBP 3.0% / SELL GBP 2.4%)

Definition “CPI, Consumer Price Index, is a statistical estimate of the movement of the prices of goods and services bought for consumption purposes by households. Its computation uses price data collected for a sample of goods and services from a sample of sales outlets in a sample of locations for a sample of times and estimates of the shares of the different expenditures in the total covered by the index which are usually based upon expenditure data obtained for sampled periods from a sample of households Wikipedia).” It is also known as the “True Cost of Living”.

The Trade PlanWe are looking for a variable deviation of 0.3%. If the Inflation number remained above 3.0%, which is over BOE´s inflation target, we will BUY GBP. If the Inflation number decreases to 2.4% or less, we´ll look to SELL GBP. Historically, even with a slight difference of 0.1%, market usually overreacts. If our deviation is hit, there is a strong possibility that the market will move 50 pips immediately.

Traded pair	Expected figure	Deviation  trigger
GBPUSD	2.7 (%)	±0.3 (%)

Expected move during first 30 minutes after the release: 20 pips or more

Actions:

	Buy	GBPUSD	if actual figure is or is above	3.0 (%)
	Sell	GBPUSD	if actual figure is or is below	2.4 (%)

Recommended Pairs : GBPUSD, GBPCAD.

GBP/USD - British Pound / US Dollar

Resistances : Weekly 1.5735 ; Daily 1.5695 ; Hourly 1.5655.

Supports :  Weekly 1.558 ; Daily 1.56 ; Hourly 1.564

The Best of Books

Currency Trading in the FOREX and Futures Markets - 

Carley Garner - EUR 25,31 

Carley Garner has created the perfect book for anyone interested in getting started in currency trading. Whether you are an experienced trader of stocks or options looking to diversify markets you can trade or you are completely new to trading in general this book will get you on the right path very quickly.

The book warns novices of both the dangers and possible rewards of trading currencies. "The goal is to give you a realistic idea of what to expect in order to avoid becoming a statistic".

The author takes you through currency trading step by step from understanding the difference between FOREX and currency futures to how to trade them. The reader will get an understanding of each currency pair and a table with each three letter abbreviation for currencies and the order in which they are paired. You are advised to stick with the currency 'majors' for liquidity and avoid the 'minors' so you are not hurt with the wide bid/ask spreads in low volume markets.
Currency pair values per contract are $100,000 per standard contract, $10,000 per mini contract, and $1,000 per micro. The book also has a table for currency futures contracts.

While FOREX traders are able to leverage their trades with 50 to 1 margin the author warns traders about the dangers of leverage and how it can wipe out your account. There is always an equal downside risk for every possible upside profit with leverage and currency traders would be wise to trade appropriate position sizes that does not put their entire account at risk in one trade.

Carley warns readers that many FOREX brokers that claim to be commission free are really just taking the other side of your trades as off exchange trades instead of executing your trades on the open market like currency futures brokers do through a centralized and regulated exchange. Many FOREX brokers make their money through the bid/ask spreads that you buy and sell at when getting in and out of trades. Also FOREX trading has counter party risks while currency futures trading is guaranteed by the exchange to make all parties whole.

"FX and futures traders are not buying or selling an asset; instead they are trading a liability that is dependent, or derived, from the value of the underlying asset; thus, they are known as derivatives."

She also covers different technical indicators to use in your trading and how they measure price to give buy and sell signals. You will also get the basic styles of trading and what usually works in the currency markets.

I strongly advise any trader interested in trading currency markets to first read this book by Carley Garner before you venture into those waters.
Currency Trading in the FOREX and Futures Markets - Carley Garner - EUR 25,31

CAD Employment Change

February 8, 2013 

CAD Employment Change

We´ll be getting the Canadian Employment Change release number tomorrow, here is the forecast:

8:30am (NY Time) CAD Employment Change Forecast

 4.2K Previous 39.8K

Unemployment Rate 7.2% Previous 7.1%

DEVIATION: 25K (BUY CAD @ 30K / SELL CAD @ -20K)

DEFINITION “Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation´s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP. This report is the first of the month that relates to labor conditions, making it susceptible to big surprises.”

The Trade Plan

The CAD Employment Change report will be released at 8:30am sharp today (changed from the usual 7:00am). What I am looking for is a minimum deviation of around 25K, or the difference between the Forecast number (4.2K) versus the actual release number; if we get a positive 30K of release, we should see demand for the CAD rise, therefore we should BUY CAD against weaker currencies at the time; however, if we get a negative deviation, such as -20K or worse, we should see some weakness in the CAD, and that will be my cue to SELL CAD against stronger currencies at the time.

I´ll also pay close attention to the unemployment rate, which is expected to rise to 7.2%. As long as this number does not conflict with the Employment Changes, we should follow the direction of the news release. If we get a conflict, such as better Employment Changes but higher Unemployment Rate, then we´ll need to look at the context of the market before taking the trade.

Expected move during first 20 minutes after the release: 40 pips or more

Actions:

	Buy	USDCAD	if actual figure is or is below	-15.5 (k)
	Sell	USDCAD	if actual figure is or is above	24.5 (k)

Recommended Pairs : USDCAD, GBPCAD.

USD/CAD - US Dollar / Canadian Dollar

Resistances : Weekly 1.0035 ; Daily 0.999 ; Hourly 0.995

Supports : Weekly 0.99 ; Daily 0.992 ; Hourly 0.993

The Best of Books

Forex Currency Trading : Underground Hidden Strategies and

 Dirty Little Tricks Making You Millionaire With Forex -

 Trader X - EUR 8,01 

Ever felt like knocking your boss the eff out? Even
if you're your own boss?
I have.
I remember the day I decided to punch my boss in
the face. One of the best decisions I ever made by
far.
It was glorious.
A "V" day of sorts.
I just walked in his office, looked him straight in the
eyes, and did a spinning back fist.
Yeah, that's right ... a spinning back fist. Bruce Lee
style, baby.
I missed of course. And fell. But nevertheless ... my
point had been made.
I picked myself back up off the floor, slotted back to
my cubic-hell, and resumed my daily torchores like a
good little drone.
And then I woke up.
Literally. Like ... in a bed. I was just a stupid dream.
"Man", I thought. "If I can't even punch my boss the
right way in my dreams, how the heck am I ever
gonna do it in real life?"
So I decided to do what every sensible human being
does in his mid-thirties ... give up on my dreams.
Luckily for me I had two dreams. One was to punch
my boss in the face. The other was to quit my job and
get filthy rich doing stuff that made me happy.
Swing-and-a-miss on the first dream (pun intended).

Home run on the second one.

Like ... grand slam home run.
I wanna tell you both how I did it and how you can be
one of my "RBI"s.
I've done all the hard work for you. All you have to do
is quit your job and come on home.
Here's my point ...
You can have and do whatever the heck you want. You
can, to a certain degree, create your own reality.
But it's not easy.
Which is why I've decided to create your reality for you.
Wanna see it? Step into it even?
You would if you knew what was on the other side. All
ya gotta do is punch a few buttons and get this book.
But you're going to have to take a click of faith.

Forex Currency Trading : Underground Hidden Strategies and Dirty Little Tricks Making You Millionaire With Forex - Trader X - EUR 8,01 

EU ECB Interest Rate

February 7, 2013

EU ECB Interest Rate

ECB (European Central Bank) will be rendering its rate decision today, and it will have a pivotal short term impact on the Euro dollar. However, it is widely believed that ECB will keep rates unchanged at 0.75%… Here´s the forecast:

7:45am (NY Time) EU ECB Interest Rate Decision 

Forecast 0.75% Previous 0.75%

Deviation: 0.25% (SELL EUR 0.50%)

Definition: ECB Interest Rate is commonly known as the rate at which the European Central Bank (ECB) charges banks in EU member states to borrow money. The minimum bid rate is an important tool in the ECB’s monetary policy and changes in this rate affect other interest rates in the EU banking system. The Minimum Bid Rate is also the The lower limit to the interest rates at which counterparties may submit bids in variable rate tenders.; The Main Refinancing (Refi Rate) is the rate on the main refinancing operations, often referred to as the refi rate. The level is determined by the ECB Governing Council. The Deposit Rate is the Interest rate at which credit institutions may at all times place overnight deposits with the national central bank. The deposit rate is normally 100 basis points below the minimum bid rate, thereby setting a lower limit on short-term money market rates.

The Trade PlanECB rate decision comes in two part, the first one is the 7:45am rate announcement followed by the 8:30am Press Conference where ECB chief Draghi issues the official statement on this rate decision. Since it is extremely unlikely to get a surprise from ECB (we stand corrected as Draghi has surprised the market twice during his first three rate meetings), there is usually no volatility following this release.

However, in the unlikely event that ECB surprises the market by cutting rates 25 basis points or more, then expect market to go into a selling frenzy and we should jump in immediately on a spike trade because no matter what the slippage or spread is, we will end up making positive pips. Of course, if ECB decides to keep rates unchanged to as expected at 0.75%, then we should see relatively no change in the market as this lack of move is expected…

Here´s the link to watch the Webcast Live at 8:30am EST – Highly recommended!http://www.ecb.int/press/tvservices/webcast/html/webcast_130207.en.html

Recommended Pairs : EURUSD, EURCAD

EUR/USD - Euro / US Dollar

Resistances : Weekly 1.3635 ; Daily 1.36 ; Hourly 1.3575

Supports : Weekly 1.346 ; Daily 1.349 ; Hourly 1.3535

BOOKS

Forex Strategy 10: Low Risk/High Return Currency Trading 

Secrets FOREX STRATEGY GURU - EUR 7,84

This book is awesome. Are you sick and tired of all the empty vague promises of your broker? I am. That is why a bought this book, and I am not sorry I did. I hit the ground running with all the awesome content that I found here. See forex trading is something different than what you have been sold and bought by the gurus. Yeahh'sure beer chilling, couch potato experience is not included'not that there is something wrong with all of the above, but you will not find it in the Forex trading world. Except, if you are doing what this book is telling you to do. Easy, fast instant cash concepts and systems coupled with your favorite Forex pair( this one is worth the ten bucks alone) ,brings you from the land of your miserable cubicle existence to the MIFP(MAGICAL INSIDER FOREX PLANET ) that's right Trader X gives you all the secrets in this book. Easy, step by step no hard work involved, just working smart strategies to pile in massive cashoola in your currently empty forex account. Seriously, if you are still losing money in Forex and not making at least a decent honest living with, you need to wake up and smell the coffee. There is no reason for you any longer to be a loser, take on the secret breakthrough concepts in this book and make forex your UNDERGROUND magical gold shovel. Insider methods not to be told to the regular retail trader(should be illegal) not that they are, but so effective, I am amazed Mr. X is showing them off. Bluntly with this information under your belt you can make embarrassing amounts of cash from forex and make the JUMP from your miserable existence, to the planet where you live luxury life of a Forex trader. In this book you will find the single most important factor (nothing to do with the fake lugging indicators), that will avalanche your earnings and make you wish you read this book a million years ago. Filled with wow (how I didn't think of this earlier) moments, this book will not leave a stone unturned and question unanswered. Just hang tight and don't be surprised if you see your earnings skyrocketing and your account looking like Kings Ransom after you master the concepts. Not to mention the accelerating, hart racing experience after you discover that what you have learn so far about forex and how you trade is soo oo hard that you should have quit a long time ago. Except, this new information makes your trading look like a kids play. Buy the book and make yourself and your family a huge favor. 

UK BOE Interest Rate

February 7, 2013

UK BOE Interest Rate

BOE (Bank of England) will be rendering its interest rate decision today, and it would provide strong volatility in the market if BOE´s final decision turns out to be a surprise, here´s the forecast:

7:00am (NY Time) UK BOE Interest Rate Forecast 0.50% 

Previous 0.50%

APT (Asset Purchasing Target) Forecast 375B Previous

 375B

DEVIATION: 0.25% interest rate / 25B Pound for APT 

(BUY GBP @ +0.75% rate / SELL GBP @ +400B APT or 

0.25% Rate)

Definition: (From Wikipedia) BOE Interest Rate, or the official bank rate (also called the Bank of England base rate[1] or BOEBR) is the interest rate that the Bank of England charges Banks for secured overnight lending. It is the British Government’s key interest rate for enacting monetary policy. It is more analogous to the US discount rate than to the Federal funds rate. The security for the lending can be any of a list of eligible securities (commonly Gilts) and are transacted as overnight repurchase agreements. When an announcement of the change in interest rates is made this is the rate the Bank of England is changing. Changes are recommended by the Monetary Policy Committee and enacted by the Governor.

The Trade PlanIn the extremely unlikely event BOE hikes rate to 0.75%, we´ll buy GBP immediately on a spike trade. Because of the level of this surprise, I think we´ll see a strong trend change for GBP in the next few weeks, so we should BUY and keep a small portion for larger gains… On the other hand, if we get a surprise increase to 400B or more in the APT or better known as quantitative easing, it would send a bearish signal to the market, and we should SELL GBP in the short-term; however, further stimulus is likely to help GBP in the long run, so if you missed the original SELL entry, I’d suggest to BUY GBP instead at support… There is also a possibility for a third scenario, BOE cutting rates to 0.25%, and if that’s the case, it should be a SELL on GBP.

Recommended Pairs : GBPUSD, GBPCAD.

GBP/USD - British Pound / US Dollar

Resistances : Weekly 1.577 ; Daily 1.5715 ; Hourly 1.5675

Supports : Weekly 1.5605 ; Daily 1.563 ; Hourly 1.5645 

The best books

Boost Your Forex Profits With Unique Convergence Strategy: 

Sell The Rally, Buy The Valley - Vladimir Ribakov - EUR 4,67

How professional traders unlock the currencies’ hidden price action, to extract consistent income from the Forex, Stocks & Futures markets.

If you are trading Forex, stocks or futures, and looking for the right tools to ensure your success, this book is the best value you can get for your money and your future.

In this book, professional trader Vladimir Ribakov takes the reader behind the scenes of the market’s price action, showing how to maximize profits and identify trading opportunities before the rest of the crowd. This is done using the strategy Vladimir developed throughout the years, which he calls “Sell The Rally, Buy The Valley”.

The book comes with a special video webinar over 3.5 hours in length, providing in-depth guidance, real-life examples of trades and additional tips. As an owner of this book, you get exclusive access to the recording of this coaching session.

The unique strategy in this book can be applied successfully to the Forex market as well as for stocks, indices and futures markets, and is intended both for beginner and advanced traders.

Biography:

After years of successfully trading for hedge funds and other financial institutions, professional trader Vladimir Ribakov decided to go independent and trade his own account.

Fast forward several years, and Vladimir Ribakov uses his vast experience of the markets, and his unique methods and strategies, to consistently pull profits out of the Forex and Futures markets.

But that was not enough for Vladimir. Being a social character, he found that he really enjoys sharing his strategies and market insights with his growing community of online followers.

In this book, he shares the powerful armory he uses day after day for his own trading, and provides detailed guidance for his unique strategy.

Buying low and selling high, the essence of trading (not just in financial markets) is often ignored. Even those traders who try to do it, usually end up risking too much or losing altogether.

This book details Vladimir Ribakov’s unique approach to Technical Analysis, which involves detecting Divergences and Convergences, and using them in smart and un-conventional ways, to accurately sell the rallies and buy the values.

Excellent ebook...a necessity for any trader 

Bought the book, finished reading and also watched the video lesson. As promised, he takes you step-by-step through his system, explaining everything in a way which is simple to understand and learn, including many tips from his trading experience.

He has an original way to look at the market, and I have a good feeling that it could give me that "edge" I'm looking for, over the crowd which is usually losing.

The video webinar is excellent and helped me to get all nuances of the strategy right. But you need to have patience to watch the entire lesson of more than 3 hours (I watched it is 4 parts...).

Boost Your Forex Profits With Unique Convergence Strategy: Sell The Rally, Buy The Valley - Vladimir Ribakov - EUR 4,67 

AU Employment Change

February 5, 2013 

AU Employment Change

Australia Employment Change is similar to U.S. NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) and Canada Employment Change, this is an economic indicator for the Employment Changes in Australia, here´s the forecast :

7.30 pm ( NY Time ) Au Employment Change 

Forecast 6,0k  Previous -5.5k

AU Unemployment Rate Forecast 5,5%

Previous 5,4%

DEVIATION : 25k ( BUY AUD +31K SELL AUD -19K

DEFINITION “Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation´s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP.

The deviation that we are looking for is at least of 25K. Historically a 25K~30K of difference has produced about 40~50 pips of movement in the direction of the difference about 75% of the time. Expect to see the effect of this news to last minimum 45 minutes to 2 hours; typical news effect should last under 2 hours. One other important news to pay attention to is the Unemployment Rate, which is expected to be tick up at 5.5%. If we don´t get a conflict with the Employment Change, then we will proceed with the trading plan.

We´ll look to trade this using after news retracement trading method, we´ll wait for the market to retrace and stay out of the market during the release time. If we get a +25K of release, our bias will be to BUY AUD against other currencies; if we get a -25K of release, our bias will be to SELL AUD against stronger currencies. 

Recommended Pairs : AUDUSD, AUDCAD

AUD/USD - Australian dollar / US Dollar

Resistances : Weekly 1.0415 ; Daily 1.036 ; Hourly 1.032 

Supports : Weekly 1.02; Daily 1.023 ; Hourly 1.0295

BOOKS

Forex Essentials in 15 Trades: The Global-View.com 

Guide to Successful Currency Trading - John M. Bland - 

EUR 42,36 

As a veteran currency trader for institutional clients, interbank dealing and proprietary trading, I find that the Forex Essential in 15 trades is an honest attempt to show how one can approach currency trading. The title itself shows that there is no one `correct method' in successfully trading currencies. Each person has to find what type of trading behavior best suits him or her. The message of the book is that there is no one-way to approach the market.
The book is filled with basic information about the currency market but the real insight is seeing the personality inside most of the 15 trades exemplified in the book. I found that Trade #2 regarding stop-loss orders shows the complexity and frustration of individual trades is just plain honest and to the point. Chapter 8's title of the "King Kong Syndrome" can describe the atmosphere on any interbank desk or hedge fund when one feels like the can always beat the market only to be set up for a big loss. I wish the book explored in more details the personalities behind the trades.
What the book fails to do is really promote the authors website in its proper context. I have been a global-view.com contributor since the site was created in the mid-1990s. Chapter 23 with Forex lessons from Shanghai BC is the typical posting and insight that one can retrieve from the GVI community. The site has some of the sharpest trading minds in the business and again like the title suggests, there is no one `correct' approach towards the market. If buying the book brings one into GVI, then I believe it is the first step towards understanding oneself in trading/managing money.