lunedì 30 aprile 2012

AU RBA Interest Rate


May 1, 2012 – Forex  Trading Strategy

 

RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is 
to keep its borrowing costs at 4.25%, as per general market consensus, after last meeting’s surprise decision of keeping the rates at the same level…

Here´s the forecast for this news release:
12:30am (NY Time) AU RBA Rate Decision Forecast 4.00% Previous 4.25%
ACTION: AUD/USD SELL 3.75% / BUY 4.25% (Unchanged)




Definition:Australian interest rate is often refers to as the “cash rate target”, also called the official cash rate (OCR) or cash rate. This is the Australian base rate. Banks pay this interest rate when they take out a loan with a maturity of 1 day from another bank. By buying or selling bonds and other securities issued by the government the RBA can influence the money supply and thus the cash rate target. A rise or fall in the cash rate often also leads to a change in the interest rates for mortgages, loans and savings.


The Trade Plan
If RBA decides to keep rates unchanged, we will BUY AUDUSD… If RBA cuts rates by 0.5% to 3.75%, we should also see a strong reaction in the market to SELL the AUD as the market will be surprised.


Primary currency pair: AUD/USD
Forecast: 4.00
Previous: 4.25
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -0.25 [SELL]
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +0.25 [BUY]

There are 29 estimates. As of I'm typing it, 27 out of 29 economists expect them to cut the rates from 4.25% to 4.00% level. Additionally, there are two economists that expect even bigger cut right to 3.75%. Nobody expects them to keep the rates unchanged at 4.25% level.

So if Australia cuts the rates to 3.75% level (or lower) ( -0.25 trigger), AUD/USD should go down by at least 50 pips. If Australia doesn't cut the rates at all (+0.25 trigger), AUD/USD should go up by at least 50 pips. If they cut the rates to 4.00% level (0.00 deviation) as expected, it will be a no trade.

As always with the interest rates, be careful and do not overtrade it.


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CA GDP


April 30, 2012

 

Canada´s monthly GDP report will be released today. Here´s the trading forecast:
8:30am NY Time Canada GDP m/m Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.1%
ACTION: USD/CAD SELL 0.5% / BUY -0.1%




DefinitionGDP is defined (by wikipedia) as: “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.”


The Trade PlanLet´s look to SELL USD/CAD if we get a 0.5% or better release, or we’ll BUY USDCAD on a -0.1% or worse release. With recent uncertainty in the commodity space, a strong fundamental such as the GDP figure may be the catalyst we need to see more volatility in CAD.


Primary currency pair: USD/CAD
Forecast: 0.2
Previous: 0.1
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -0.3 [BUY]
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +0.2 [SELL]

If Canadian GDP m/m comes out at -0.1 or more negative ( -0.3 trigger), USD/CAD should go up by about 15 pips. If it comes out at +0.4 or higher ( +0.2 trigger), USD/CAD should go down by about 15 pips.

I treat it more like a scalp. I don't expect big spikes but it should be enough to make a few pips. If we get +/- 0.4 deviation (such deviations happened in the past so it's possible), then obviously we might see a nice spike. If you are not interested in scalping, then set up triggers to +/- 0.4 but chances for a trade would be say 10%.

Based on 24 estimates, median estimate is 0.2% and the average estimate is 0.2%. The highest estimate is +0.3% (one estimate). The lowest estimate is 0.0% (one estimate). There are ten estimates for 0.1% and twelve for 0.2%. One standard deviation is +/- 0.1%.

Last month it came out exactly as expected so it was a no trade.

Two months ago it came out at 0.4 vs 0.3 expected so it was a no trade.

Three months ago it came out at -0.1 vs +0.2 expected, and we saw almost 20 pip spike on USD/CAD.

Four months ago it came out at 0.0 vs. 0.2 expected but we saw very small spike.

Five months ago it came out exactly as expected.

Six months ago it came out almost as expected.

Seven months ago it came out almost as expected so it was no trade.

Eight months ago it came out at 0.2 vs 0.3 expected so it was a no trade although we saw about 20 pip spike.

Nine months ago it came out at -0.3% vs +0.1% expected, and we saw about 30 pip spike, and about 80 pip move within 30 minutes. It was a good price action but also a good deviation.

Other months we saw 0.1 and 0.2 deviations and some price actions too but nothing really impressive although you shouldn't lose money on that.



Currently, it's a small report so either we get a good deviation or we stay away.


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venerdì 27 aprile 2012

US ADVANCED GDP



US Advanced GDP    4/27/12 – Forex News

 

Here is the forecast for the US Advanced GDP q/q :
8:30am (NY Time) US Advance GDP q/qForecast 2.5% Previous 3.0%
ACTION: SELL EURUSD 3.3% / BUY EURUSD 2.6%



DEFINITION:
“GDP, which is defined (from wikipedia) as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP number has a direct effect on the Interest rate of the currency, it is one of the news indicators that affects FOMC’s decision directly.”


The Trade Plan
We are looking for a deviation between 0.3% ~ 0.5% from the forecasted figure of 3.0%. Therefore if we get a 3.3% on the 1st quarter GDP, it would be US Dollar positive. We will SELL EURUSD. However, if we get a 2.6% release or worse, then we would be BUY EURUSD. We’ll be looking to trade this release based on my Retracement Trading Method; since this is a high impact release, strong market volatility is expected immediately after the release.


If US GDP Annualized comes out at 1.8 or less ( -0.7 trigger), USD/JPY should go down by about 20 pips. If it comes out at +3.2 or higher ( +0.7 trigger), USD/JPY should go up by about 20 pips.

Based on 85 estimates, both median and average estimate is 2.5%. The highest estimate is 3.6% (one estimate), then 3.2% (one estimate), then 3.0% (three estimates). The lowest estimate is 1.2% (one estimate), then 1.8% (two estimates), then 1.9% (one estimate). One standard deviation is 0.3%.

This is the first release out of the three versions of the US GDP, and if the trigger is hit, we may see some price action. Unfortunately, because the Advance GDP happens only once every three months, there is not much data I can look at so it's hard to estimate the exact size of the spike. Nevertheless, I don't think you could possibly lose money with a such deviation. At minimum it's good enough to give a try. On the other hand, don't expect huge spikes because U.S. is not ready for any changes in interest rates anytime soon so spikes are very muted now.

Three months ago it came out at 2.8% vs 3.0% expected and there was almost no price action. No trade anyway.

Six months ago it came out as expected so it was a no trade.

Nine months ago it came out at 1.3 vs 1.6 expected, and while we saw only 10 pip spike, USD/JPY was on a sell move for a total of over 40 pips within next 30 minutes. Based on the deviation alone, it was a no trade, of course.


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mercoledì 25 aprile 2012

NZ RBNZ INTEREST RATE



NZ RBNZ Interest Rate – 4/25/12


RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) will be releasing its interest rate decision today and it is widely expected that Gov. Bollard will announce that No rate change today…
5:00pm (NY Time) RBNZ Rate Decision Forecast 2.50% Previous 2.50%
ACTION: NZDUSD BUY 2.75%




Definition:The OCR (Official Cash Rate of New Zealand) influences the price of borrowing money in New Zealand and provides the Reserve Bank with a means of influencing the level of economic activity and inflation. An OCR is a fairly conventional tool by international standards.


The Trade Plan
Current forecast from economists surveyed by Bloomberg agree that RBNZ is likely to leave the official rate at 2.5% during this meeting; however, in the unlikely event that Gov. Bollard surprises the market and hike rates to 2.75% or higher, we should see an immediate strong demand in the NZD which is a great opportunity to spike trade BUY NZD/USD.

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US FOMC INTEREST RATE



US FOMC Interest Rate – 04/25/12

So here’s the forecast for the actual rate decision:
12:30pm US FOMC Interest Rate Forecast 0.25% Previous 0.25% (Both Unchanged)
2:15pm US FOMC Press Conference

There is a Live Webcast available for the Press Conference, you can watch it here:
http://www.ustream.tv/federalreserve




The Analysis:As far as the FOMC statement, I’d expect minimal changes in today’s release compared to March’s Statement:
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately. Labor market conditions have improved further; the unemployment rate has declined notably in recent months but remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment have continued to advance. The housing sector remains depressed. Inflation has been subdued in recent months, although prices of crude oil and gasoline have increased lately. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects moderate economic growth over coming quarters and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Strains in global financial markets have eased, though they continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The recent increase in oil and gasoline prices will push up inflation temporarily, but the Committee anticipates that subsequently inflation will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate.
I’d expect the above paragraph to remain largely unchanged, but if the word “significant” is taken out, then expect USD to rally…

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy. In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions–including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run–are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.
I expect no real changes to the paragraph above, and if the Fed changes the period from late 2014, expect market to react violently as any date ahead of 2014 will signal strong USD, and vice versa on a date after 2012… In the paragraph below, I expect to see “Operation Twist” to continue until June 2012 as the $400 Billion USD is still ongoing, no new measures should be announced here…

The Committee also decided to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who does not anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate through late 2014.
I believe the above paragraphs to remain unchanged… I would be looking at the voting count and if Lacker changes his vote due to recent drop in NFP release, USD could be sold off…

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lunedì 23 aprile 2012

UK PRELIM GDP



Forex News

UK Prelim GDP 4/25/12

UK quarterly GDP release is always a high impact report. With this being the Prelim release, or the first release of three, we are likely to see more market participation. Here is the forecast number:
4:30am (NY Time) UK Revised GDP q/q Forecast 0.1% Previous -0.3%
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 0.4% SELL -0.2%



Definition
GDP is defined as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP is the basically direct measure of the economy’s health, and a stronger GDP means that the central bank will more likely to raise interest to curb inflation.


The Trade Plan
Our deviation for today’s trade is 0.3% to SELL and 0.3% to BUY. We’ll look to possibly SELL GBP/USD at -0.2% of release figure or worse; BUY GBP/USD at 0.4% of release figure or better. Depending on the surprise of this release, we could go from after news retracement trade to spike trading. I believe if we get a 0.6% or better release, it justifies spiking trading to buy GBPUSD immediately. If we get -0.5% or worse, then it is also justified to SELL GBPUSD on a spike trade.

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AU CPI



AU CPI  04/23/2012 – Forex Trading Plan


Our plan to trade today’s CPI release out of Australia will be to look for opportunities for entry if we get a surprise in this release, here is the current forecast:
9:30pm AU CPI q/q Forecast 0.7% Previous 0.0%

ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 1.0% SELL 0.3%

Definition

“The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the rate of inflation (i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by consumers when purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising interest rates to bring prices down. Higher interest rates attract foreign investment, thus increasing demand for the nation’s currency. CPI is one of the most closely watched indicators and will usually have a high impact upon release.”

The Trade Plan

Here is the plan, if we get a better than expected CPI data, we should see an instant appreciation of AUD by at least of 40 pips within the hour, but if we get a worse than expected number, AUD should drop and we should expect the market to consolidate. Of course, the deviation that I am looking for must be at least 0.3%, or I will skip the after news trade… On a minimum release of 1.0%, I would buy AUD/USD after a decent retracement. If we get a 0.3% or worse release, I’d SELL AUD/USD immediately, I would consider a spike trade on a better than expected release as recent gains in the AUD are screaming for a strong demand.

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giovedì 19 aprile 2012

CA CORE CPI

NEWS TRADING
Friday April 20, 2012

[8:30am NY Time]

CPI is also known a Inflation and our focus will be on the
Core Inflation figure, also known as CPI excluding Food and
Energy, or CPI ex Volatile Items...

Here´s the forecast:
8:30am CA Core CPI m/m
Forecast 0.3% Previous 0.4%
ACTION: USDCAD BUY 0.0% / SELL 0.5%


DEFINITION:
“CPI, Consumer Price Index, is a statistical estimate of the movement of the prices of goods and services bought for consumption purposes by households. Its computation uses price data collected for a sample of goods and services from a sample of sales outlets in a sample of locations for a sample of times and estimates of the shares of the different expenditures in the total covered by the index which are usually based upon expenditure data obtained for sampled periods from a sample of households (Wikipedia).” It is also known as the “True Cost of Living”.

The Trade Plan
The Core CPI report will be released today and our deviation for this release, based on a historical track record, around 0.3%. Therefore, look for tradable figures of 0.0% or worse to BUY USD/CAD, or a +0.5% or better to SELL USD/CAD.

The Market
With the hawkish tone out of BOC lately, it is possible that the central bank is evaluating its options for a sooner than later rate hike; therefore, on a stronger than expected core release, we should see speculation rise on BOC moving up its time table for rate tightening.

Additional Thoughts
USDCAD may stall until the equity market opens; therefore I´d recommend use patience when trading this pair during 8:30am hour. Also Core CPI rarely surprises much, so if we do not get our deviation, just stay out of the market until U.S. market opens.

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UK RETAIL SALES

NEWS TRADING
Friday April 20, 2012
[4:30am NY Time]




Today´s Retail Sales number from UK will be widely watched
as this is a high impact yet very tradable report. Here is
the forecast for this release:

4:30am (NY Time) UK Retail Sales
Forecast 0.4% Previous -0.8%
ACTION: GBP/JPY BUY 0.8% SELL -0.2%




The Trade PlanThe monthly retail sales report is a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail level. A higher release is generally good for the economy, and better for it´s currency; a lower release is considered negative for the economy and not good for it´s currency.
Our tradable deviation or surprise factor for UK Retail Sales is 0.4% to BUY and -0.6% SELL. If our deviation is hit, we can expect the market to move at least 50 pips within the hour, with a historical accuracy of 72%. We´ll be looking to BUY GBP/USD if we get any positive figure (at least 0.1%), and SELL GBP/USD if we get -1.0% or worse.


The Market
With MPC Minutes showing potential change in BOE’s monetary policy from easing towards tightening, or at the very least, neutral; we should see demand for GBP to remain high… on a strong release, we should see GBPUSD move beyond recent high and possibly retest the 1.6175 level…



GBP is bullish for the time being, therefore even on a weaker than expected release, we should look to BUY on dips…

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US Existing Home


NEWS TRADING
Thursday April 19, 2012
[10:00am NY Time]


US Existing Home Sales is expected to rise slightly from the
previous month as current foreclosure rate is still
remaining resiliently high. Here's the forecast:

10:00am Existing Home Sales
Forecast 4.62M Previous 4.59M
ACTION: USDJPY BUY 5.00M / GBPUSD BUY 4.20M




Definition:“Measures the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency because large purchases tend to be made by consumers that are optimistic and confident in their financial position. The sale of a home also triggers commissions for real estate agents, and often home owners will purchase goods such as appliances and furniture shortly after purchasing a home. Traders watch this report closely as it’s the month’s first demand-side housing indicator to be released.”


The MarketThe global market is torn between concerns over European debt crisis and the sharp rise in commodity prices, combined with the negative surprise in the U.S. employment sector, today’s number is expected to be inline or slightly worse than expected… should there be a positive surprise, market should turn quickly to risk.


The Trade PlanBecause the Housing sector is one of the most foundamental components of the U.S. economy, this release will certainly cause some volatility in the market, especially if our tradable figures (+/- 400K) were hit. With the focus of world on the status of U.S. housing sector, this release may bring about a strong sentiment of risk appetite/aversion if our BUY/SELL trigger is hit…
If our buy tradable deviation is hit, or 5.00M figure is released, we should look to BUY USDJPY after the release. If our sell tradable deviation is hit, or 4.20M figure is released, we should look to BUY GBPUSD.


Additional ThoughtsThis release is scheduled at 10:00am US EST time, usually it is the last high impact news for the NY session, so we may see more volatile market regardless of the release figure because many traders may just be waiting for this news to be out of the way first.

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mercoledì 18 aprile 2012

NZ CPI

NEWS TRADING
Wednesday April 18, 2012


[6:45pm NY Time]



We'll be trading the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figure out
of New Zealand today. CPI is Inflation, therefore it is a
very high impact release. Here's the forecast:

6:45pm (NY Time) NZ CPI q/q
Forecast 0.6% Previous -0.3%
ACTION: NZD/USD BUY 1.0% SELL 0.0%



DEFINITION:“The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the rate of inflation (i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by consumers when purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising interest rates to bring prices down. Higher interest rates attract foreign investment, thus increasing demand for the nation’s currency. CPI is one of the most closely watched indicators and will usually have a high impact upon release.”



The MarketGeneral market sentiment is leaning towards risk aversion, however when it comes to NZD, it is basically tracking the direction of the global equity market.  On a strong surprise release, where the fundamentals of the country may come into play, we will see some temporary volatilities (up or down) in the NZD, but the medium to long term trend momentum should resume shortly after, therefore I’d recommend more of a BUY on dip rather than SELL on rally…


The Basic PlanOur focus will be on the headline CPI number. If we get a better release of 1.0%, we should be looking to BUY NZD/USD; if we get a lower release 0.0%, then we’ll see NZD/USD move down. Usually if our BUY or SELL figures are hit, we could expect the market to move about 40~50 pips within the next 30~90 minutes.


Additional ThoughtsRBNZ has been rather optimistic over the rebuilding plans over the earthquake in Christchurch. As a matter of fact, RBNZ stated that because of the rebuilding, New Zealand’s GDP could rise by 1~2% yearly. Therefore, I believe the big picture would be to go LONG on NZDUSD on dips.

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UK MPC MINUTES

NEWS TRADING
Wednesday April 18, 2012
[4:30am NY Time




MPC Meeting Minutes is scheduled to be released today and
since it´s customary for BOE (Bank of England) not to
release a statement along with its interest rate decision
(2 weeks ago) if there were no changes to either rate
decision or APF (Asset Purchasing Facility, UK´s
quantitative easing program); today will be the first time
for a glimpse into what took place during this meeting, here
is the forecast:

4:30am NY Time UK MPC Minutes
Forecast 0-0-9 Previous 0-0-9
ACTION: N/A






The MarketBank of England decided to keep its monetary policy unchanged during the last meeting, along with its current APT facility. With most major central banks sitting on the sidelines adopting a wait-and-see approach, I believe there may not be a surprise today with today’s MPC Minutes release… However, if MPC decided to discuss increasing the APT further, then we may see some weakness in the GBP today…  Recent CPI release showed steady inflationary pressure, but with the Employment component of the economy likely to fall, BOE may be more inclined for further easing…


The Trade PlanWe will be looking at the vote count today but because of the current economic situation in UK and the uncertainty of the overall market view on Sterling, I’d recommend to sit on the sideline or follow me in the traderoom to trade this release. Due to the nature of this release, you need to have a newswire or audio service in order to trade it. If we see a steady market reaction after the release, it may very well carry over to the NY Session, therefore I’d wait for 5 minutes before even deciding on a trade. If market moves steadily, then I will use the double-fibonacci method and follow that trend.


Additional Thoughts
It is my opinion that the outcome of this meeting will have profound effect for GBP, if we get a strong surprise. Therefore I’d stay out of the market until then.

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lunedì 16 aprile 2012

US CORE RETAIL SALES


Forex News Analysis For US Core Retail Sales 04/16/12





We´ll be getting the U.S. Core Retail Sales (and Retail Sales) figure out tomorrow. As high impact news releases are concerned, Retail Sales make up about 2/3 of U.S. GDP (Gross Domestic Product); Core Retail Sales report excludes Auto sales which comprises 20% of total retail sales. Therefore, we are more focused on daily consumer spending on goods found in such places as department stores, gas stations, and restaurants.

Here´s the forecast:8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.6% Previous 0.9%
ACTION: 1.0% BUY USDJPY / -0.1% BUY EURUSD






DEFINITION:“(Retail Sales Core) Derivative of Retail Sales that excludes the Automobile Sales component. Automobile Sales make up roughly 25% of Retail Sales, but they can be very volatile from month to month and can distort the picture. Retail Sales with the exclusion of this volatile component is thought to be a better indicator of the underlying trend in consumer spending.”


The Trade PlanThe plan to trade this release is straight forward. We are going to wait for 1.0% release or better to BUY USD/JPY, or a -0.1% or worse to BUY EURUSD. If we get a in-between release, we´ll need to look at the pre-release market condition and sentiment in order to make a decision, or just stay out of the market altogether.


The Market
Retail Sales in March probably rose moderately judging from recent economic data, however the gain should be limited as March NFP came out 85K less than forecast… With the rise in uncertainty over US economic recovery, if we get another disappointing Retail Sales release today, we should see significant weakness in the USD as speculation should rise for the Feds to announce some sort of QE in the near future.


Additional ThoughtsSince both releases (Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales) are scheduled together, if we get a conflict in the releases, we should stay out regardless whether or not we get our tradable deviation.



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giovedì 12 aprile 2012

US CORE CPI


NEWS TRADING
Friday April 13, 2012
[8:30am NY Time]

We´ll be trading US Core CPI m/m release tomorrow. CPI or
Consumer Price Index, also known as the "true cost of
living", is what drives Central Banks to raise/cut interest
rate, therefore this release will be widely watched. Here´s
the forecast for the CPI:

8:30am (NY Time) US Core CPI m/m
Forecast 0.2% Previous 0.4%
ACTION: 0.0% BUY EURUSD


DEFINITION:“CPI, Consumer Price Index, is a statistical estimate of the movement of the prices of goods and services bought for consumption purposes by households. Its computation uses price data collected for a sample of goods and services from a sample of sales outlets in a sample of locations for a sample of times and estimates of the shares of the different expenditures in the total covered by the index which are usually based upon expenditure data obtained for sampled periods from a sample of households wikipedia).” It is also known as the “True Cost of Living”.


The Trade PlanOur minimum tradable deviation for this release is 0.2%; if the release number (core) decreases to a minimum 0.0% then we will BUY EURUSD. Historically even at a difference of 0.1%, market is likely to exaggerate its move, therefore if our tradable release is hit, there is about 80% of chance market will move 50 pips within the next 90 minutes or so.


The MarketFollowing the pessimistic reaction over last week’s NFP, USD is likely to remain in consolidation, and we should look to trade in the direction of SELLING USD, especially also considering the Weekly Jobless Claims numbers…


Additional ThoughtsWith Fed’s mandate on both Unemployment and Inflation, today’s CPI may not be enough to change Fed’s view on their monetary policy, therefore I believe the effect may be short-lived.

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mercoledì 11 aprile 2012

AU EMPLOYMENT CHANGE

NEWS TRADINGWednesday April 11, 2012[9:30pm NY Time]






Australia Employment Change is similar to
U.S. NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) and Canada Employment Change,
this is an economic indicator for the Employment Changes in
Australia, here´s the forecast:

9:30pm (NY Time) AU Employment Change
Forecast 6.5K Previous -15.4K
AU Unemployment Rate
Forecast 5.3% Previous 5.2%
ACTION: AUD/USD BUY 30.0K / SELL -20.0K




DEFINITION“Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation´s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP.”


The Trade PlanThe deviation that we are looking for is at least of 25K. Historically a 25K~30K of difference has produced about 40~50 pips of movement in the direction of the difference about 75% of the time. Expect to see the effect of this news to last minimum 45 minutes to 2 hours; typical news effect should last under 2 hours. One other important news to pay attention to is the Unemployment Rate, which is expected to be at 5.3%. If we don´t get a conflict with the Employment Change, then we will proceed with the trading plan.
We´ll look to trade this using after news retracement trading method, we´ll wait for the market to retrace and stay out of the market during the release time. If we get a 30K of release, our bias will be to BUY AUD/USD; if we get a -20K of release, our bias will be to SELL AUD/USD. We´ll only enter after we see a decent retracement from the initial spike.


The MarketWith RBA keeping its interest rate at 4.25% during the last meeting but definitely opening the door for further easing, combining the fact that China’s growth has moderated in recently month, I believe AUD will remain neutral to bearish; however, with recent NFP release out of US showing that U.S. economy is still under considerable pressure, and that further stimulus may be needed, AUDUSD should remain well supported, therefore I’d be looking to BUY for the long/medium term, but SELL for the short term.


Additional ThoughtsAUD may not retrace much during lower liquidity hours, therefore we may have to get in as soon as possible on a strong release. A possible spike trading.


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giovedì 5 aprile 2012

US NONFARM PAYROLL NFP EMPLOYMENT



Forex News Trading US Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) Employment 04/06/12


We´ll be trading the US NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) Employment Change, it is the focus news release for the week. Here´s the forecast:
8:30am (NY Time) US NF Employment Forecast 205K Previous 227K
8:30am (NY Time) US Unemployment Rate Forecast 8.3% Previous 8.3%
ACTION: 275K SELL EURUSD / 135K BUY EURUSD




DEFINITIONMeasures the change in number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation´s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP. This report is the first of the month that relates to labor conditions, making it susceptible to big surprises.


The Trade PlanTodays NFP Employment Change release is forecasted at 205K. The ADP employment report came out slightly better than expected at 209K vs 205K. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at 8.3%. If we get a significantly lower release on the NFP (135K or worse) and slightly higher Unemployment Rate (8.4% or more), I´d be looking to BUY the EURUSD, AUDUSD, or go long on GBPUSD . On the other hand, if we get a positive NFP release (275K or better) and the Unemployment Rate remains ator below 8.3%, USD should strengthen immediately and I would SELL EURUSD and AUDUSD.
If we get a conflicting release, then well wait and see how the market reacts first. If there is an overwhelming sentiment driving the market, well get plenty of opportunities for an entry if we just wait for 5 minutes after the release; you´ll get a much clearer view.


The MarketMost analysts believe that today’s NFP release will be positive, but there is still a long way to go before these job gains start to impact the overall economy, as a matter of fact, the focus for today’s NFP release may not rest on the figure itself, but perhaps on the future direction of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, or QE3… and in order to address that, let’s first look at some positive/negative points on today’s NFP release:
  1. Wednesday´s ADP employment report showed that the private sector created a net of 209K new jobs in March. (Positive)
  2. ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI’s Employment Indeces showed above 56 reading, on both PMI’s. (Positive)
  3. 4 – week Unemployment Claims show that unemployment is around 355K, down from 376K average in March. (Positive)
  4. Better Consumer Confidence readings and Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort Index at 4 year highs. (Positive)
As you can clearly see, all usual data are pointing to an above 200K NFP release… however, as stated before, the market is more concerned with the question “To QE3, or not QE3?” than the actual NFP release, although a strong NFP will certainly diminish QE3 speculation, while a weak NFP release will add to it.
Therefore, I believe on a strong NFP release, where the jobs market maintains its trend of improvements, USD will probably see strong contrast against European currencies (EUR, GBP, CHF), and moderate gains against commodity currencies (AUD,NZD, CAD) and JPY.  On a weak NFP release, depending on the actual figure, we could see weakness in the USD against all other majors, as weak Employment and the possibility of QE3 dominate market sentiment… I believe we may see strong gains in the EUR, GBP, AUD, CHF, NZD and modest gains in CAD and JPY… of course with EUR and possibly AUD being the biggest winners…  Of course JPY crosses such as GBPJPY, EURJPY, and even AUDJPY should all fare very well…


Observation: An interesting observation for today could be on the CADJPY pair, as crude oil and the proximity to the U.S. have added constant support for the pair, not mentioning Thursday’s blowout figure on the CA Employment Change… with JPY likely to depreciate more and with a possibility of further stimulus to be introduced next week, I believe CADJPY may be a great pair to go LONG either way, since a bad NFP is likely to help risk sentiment and make CAD a perfect alternative currency for USD, while a good NFP will add to the strength in CAD and weakness in JPY… of course you may have to give this trade a bit of room and time, but I believe it will hit 85 in the next couple of weeks…


NFP Trading StrategyLet´s talk about how to trade this release: We´ll wait for the numbers to come out but continue to hold on a trade, Even if we get our tradable figures (280K to 140K). Wait for a possible revision of the previous release number of 0K as the market usually overreacts with the Revision and chances favor that a solid trade will present itself if we dont get a conflicting releases between the revision and the actual release; at this point, still stay out of the market.
Then the next step is to wait for the Unemployment Rate, which is expected to remain unchanged at 8.3%. If the Unemployment Rate were to surprise higher, were faced with an imperative decision at the time of the release.
After all of the numbers have been released, wait for the market to push and wait patiently for a decent retracement before getting in. Look for recent support/resistance areas for entry as a high impact news with various components are extremely volatile, and those who are patient will always get a chance to enter with a much better entry.
Additional ThoughtsUSD is likely to be the focus today, and EURUSD should be the main pair to trade. Last NFP was the first time in a long time that the market decided to trade in the direction of the news instead of risk sentiment, therefore I believe today’s release will be the same…

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mercoledì 4 aprile 2012

CA EMPLOYMENT CHANGE



NEWS TRADING
Thursday April 5, 2012

[8:35am NY Time]

We´ll be getting the Canadian Employment Change release
number tomorrow, here is the forecast:

7:00am (NY Time) CAD Employment Change
Forecast 15K Previous 2.3k
Unemployment Rate 7.6%
ACTION: EURCAD SELL 50K / BUY USDCAD -5K

DEFINITION“Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation´s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP. This report is the first of the month that relates to labor conditions, making it susceptible to big surprises


The Trade PlanThe Canadian Employment Change report will be released at 7:00am sharp today. What I am looking for is a minimum deviation of around 25K, or the difference between the Forecast number (15K) versus the actual release number; if we get a positive 40K of release, we should see demand for the CAD rise, therefore we should SELL EUR/CAD; however, if we get a negative deviation, such as -10K or worse, we should see some weakness in the CAD, and that will be my cue to BUY USD/CAD pair.
I´ll also pay close attention to the unemployment rate, which is expected remain unchanged at 7.6%. As long as this number does not conflict with the Employment Changes, we should follow the direction of the news release. If we get a conflict, such as better Employment Changes but higher Unemployment Rate, then we´ll need to look at the context of the market before taking the trade.


The MarketCAD has been strengthening on the back of recent tension in the Middle East and the fact that USD has retraced its gains on speculations that US QE3 might still be a possibility; of course a positive outcome in the Greek PSI debt exchange deal will promote risk appetite sentiment, which should add demand for commodity currencies such as CAD.


Additional ThoughtsUSDCAD is a slow moving currency pair, it will move on a strong deviation, but retracement is usually non-existent or very small… Therefore, if we get a strong release, especially when it is going with the pre-market trend, a sooner than later entry should add more pips to your account. Expect to see a spike down -> stall -> another spike down…


If the Canadian Employment Change comes at -19.5K or more negative ( -30 trigger), USD/CAD should go up by about 30 pips. If it comes out at +40.5 or higher ( +30 trigger), USD/CAD should go down by about 30 pips.

Based on 24 estimates, median estimate is 10.5K while the average estimate is 13.2K. The highest estimate is 40K (one vote), and then 22K (two votes). The lowest estimate is 5K (four votes), and then 7.6K (one vote). One standard deviation is 7.5K.

Sometimes this report performs really well and sometimes not so well so I decided to use a bit bigger triggers this time. If you want to scalp, perhaps +/- 20 triggers would work but it's a bit risky to trade.

Last month it came out at -2.8 vs +15 expected (-17.8 deviation) but at the same time unemployment dropped by 0.2% (therefore, they conflicted), and we saw a very weird price action. Good thing it didn't hit our trigger because it would be a losing trade.

Two months ago it came out at 2.3K vs 22K but it caused only 20 pip spike.

Three months ago we had small deviation but still nice price action although it was a no trade for us.

Four months ago it came out at -18.6 vs +20 expected (-38.6 deviation) and we saw a good 45 pip spike on USD/CAD.

Five months ago it came out at -54K vs +20K expected (-74 deviation) and we saw almost 70 pip spike on USD/CAD. Amazing spike but also amazing deviation.

Six months ago it came out at 60.9 vs 19.6 expected (+41.3 deviation). It was a really good deviation and also very good price action: about 50 pip spike on USD/CAD.

Seven months ago it came out at -5.5 vs. 23.4 expected (-28.9 deviation) and the price action was not impressive. We can talk about 20 pip spike but the price action was very choppy.

Eight months ago it came out at 28.4 vs 11.3 expected (+17.1 deviation) and not only USD/CAD spiked only by maybe 7 pips, but the price action actually reversed and went the other way. Total crap. This is actually the reason why this report was removed from the schedule for a while.

Nine months ago it came out almost as expected so it was a no trade.

Ten months ago it came out at 58.3 vs. 20 expected, and USD/CAD moved down by a bit over 20 pips and then reversed. Not good.

Eleven months ago it came out at -1.5 vs 28 expected, and we only had 25 pip spike up with immediate retracement.


Keep in mind we will also have the unemployment rate coming out. If they conflict between each other, I would try exit as soon as possible.

Remember that while higher Canadian Employment is good for CAD (selling pressure on USD/CAD), higher unemployment rate is bad for CAD (buying pressure on USD/CAD). Therefore, ideally we would like to see higher employment change and lower unemployment rate, or lower employment change and higher unemployment rate.


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UK BOE INTEREST RATE



NEWS TRADING
Thursday April 5, 2012
[7:00am NY Time]

BOE (Bank of England) will be rendering its interest rate
decision today, and it would provide strong volatility in
the market if BOE´s final decision turns out to be a
surprise, here´s the forecast:

7:00am (NY Time) UK Official Bank Rate
Forecast 0.50% Previous 0.50%
APT (Asset Purchasing Target)
Forecast 325B Previous 325B
ACTION: GBP/USD BUY 0.75% (Rate) / SELL 375B (APT)






The Trade PlanIn the extremely unlikely event BOE hikes rate to 0.75%, we´ll buy GBP/USD immediately on a spike trade. Because of the level of this surprise, I think we´ll see a strong trend change for GBP in the next few weeks, so we should BUY and keep a small portion for larger gains… On the other hand, if we get a surprise increase above the forecasted 325B in the APT or better known as quantitative easing, it would send an even more bearish signal to the market, and we should SELL GBP/USD immediately.


The MarketUK´s BOE, Bank of England´s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is once again scheduled to release their interest rate decision today and the expectations are to keep their official bank rates at 0.50% and to keep the APT (Asset Purchasing Target) at the current level of 325B Pound, according to a majority of economists surveyed by Reuters and Bloomberg. The important focus will be the MPC Minutes, as usual, which are scheduled 2 weeks later; therefore if we don’t get surprises today, market will ignore this release.


Additional ThoughtsBOE does not release an accompanied statement unless there is a change in either Rate or APT, we should not force a trade on an unchanged decision.

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US ISM NON-MANUFACTURING PMI


NEWS TRADING
Wednesday April 4, 2012


[10:00am NY Time]


ISM or Institute for Supply Management is releasing its PMI
(Purchasing Manager Index) and its similar to the UK
Services PMI as this release is targeting the services
sectors. As a leading indicator, traders generally pay
attention to this report for hints of economic trend.

10:00am NY Time US ISM NonManufact. PMI
Forecast 57.0 Previous 57.3
ACTION: 59.0 BUY USDJPY  / 53.0 BUY EURUSD



DEFINITION:The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Index measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation´s currency. To produce the index, purchasing managers are surveyed on a number of subjects including employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Traders watch these surveys closely because purchasing managers, by virtue of their jobs, have early access to data about their company´s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.


Trade PlanU.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is better known as the U.S. Services PMI; the current expectation is above the 50 level at 57.0. This figure indicates an expansion in the services sector where 50 is the medium point for the PMI. We´ll be using a deviation of around 2 points in order to BUY USD and 4.0 points in order SELL USD. In the event that 59.0 is reached, we could see some USD strength and JPY weakness. Therefore you could BUY USD/JPY; however, if the opposite is true and a figure of 53.0 is released, expect to see stronger EUR and weaker USD.
If our tradable releases are reached, there is a good expectation that the market will move 50 pips within the next 120 minutes on both USD/JPY and EUR/USD.


The MarketThe ISM non manufacturing PMI is a leading indicator as stated before, and usually doesnt affect the long-term trend of the market unless we get a huge surprise. The services sector is expecting a positive release (57) that shows the purchase managers in services sector expect to see continuing expansion for the month of April.
With the recent Manufacturing PMI showing a better than expected release, especially with an Employment Component of 56.1 reading, I believe today’s PMI will also be at least inline or slightly better than expected… and considering the upcoming NFP on Friday, if we get a strong release today, risk sentiment should be dominating the Forex and broader markets alike.

Additional ThoughtsMarket usually pays attention to the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI as the majority of U.S´ work force is service related (around 90%?). Therefore a strong release in either direction will shift the current speculation of USD

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US ADP NFP EMPLOYMENT


NEWS TRADING
Wednesday April 4, 2012


[8:15am NY Time]



ADP or Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP) is releasing
it´s own estimate for the private sectors of NFP (Nonfarm
Payroll). This is a high impact release and it´s followed
by currency traders as they look for hints on Friday´s NFP
official release. Here´s the forecast:

8:15am NY Time US ADP NFP Change
Forecast 205K Previous 216K
ACTION: 260K BUY USDJPY/ 150K SELL USDJPY




The Trade PlanI usually don´t trade this release but I use it for future trend references. However, if the deviation of 50K is actually hit, the market probably wont have a problem pushing it, and this will undoubtedly change market perception for the NFP release; therefore its best to be around your computer during the release time rather than find out what happened hours later and potentially miss the entire movement.
With the above being said, we´ll be looking for a deviation of 50K, so if we get 260K or better release, I´d be looking to BUY USD/JPY; if we get a 150K or worse, then I´d be looking to SELL AUDUSD or AUDJPY on risk aversion trades…


The MarketOnce again market is expecting a strong private payroll growth as reflected in the forecast today. With this being the first real data that helps to predict Friday’s NFP, market will probably react sharply to this release if we get a huge surprise, especially if we get a strong figure.  The Private Payroll number for Friday’s NFP is expected to be around 233K, which corresponds to the ADP release today, and any surprise (better or worse) should move the market.


Additional ThoughtsThe ADP NFP Employment Release is always considered as a high impact release because ADP is the largest private payroll processing provider in the U.S., traders in general pay more attention to this release, especially during NFP week. ADP usually releases its version of Non-Farm Payroll numbers before the actual NFP based on it´s proprietary private payroll data.
This release could start a pre-news trend for Friday´s NFP. Pay attention also to both ISM PMI’s alone with Monster’s Index & Challenger’s Job Cuts report for a complete picture.

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