Friday April 20, 2012
[4:30am NY Time]
Today´s Retail Sales number from UK will be widely watched
as this is a high impact yet very tradable report. Here is
the forecast for this release:
4:30am (NY Time) UK Retail Sales
Forecast 0.4% Previous -0.8%
ACTION: GBP/JPY BUY 0.8% SELL -0.2%
The Trade PlanThe monthly retail sales report is a direct measurement of consumer activities at the retail level. A higher release is generally good for the economy, and better for it´s currency; a lower release is considered negative for the economy and not good for it´s currency.
Our tradable deviation or surprise factor for UK Retail Sales is 0.4% to BUY and -0.6% SELL. If our deviation is hit, we can expect the market to move at least 50 pips within the hour, with a historical accuracy of 72%. We´ll be looking to BUY GBP/USD if we get any positive figure (at least 0.1%), and SELL GBP/USD if we get -1.0% or worse.
The Market
With MPC Minutes showing potential change in BOE’s monetary policy from easing towards tightening, or at the very least, neutral; we should see demand for GBP to remain high… on a strong release, we should see GBPUSD move beyond recent high and possibly retest the 1.6175 level…
GBP is bullish for the time being, therefore even on a weaker than expected release, we should look to BUY on dips…
Book : Trading in the Zone: Master the Market with Confidence, Discipline and a Winning Attitude - Mark Douglas
Book : Trading Triads: Unlocking the Secrets of Market Structure and Trading in Any Market (Wiley Trading) - Felipe Tudela
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