Forex News Trading For AU RBA Interest Rate 04/03/12
RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is expected to keep its borrowing costs at
4.25%, as per general market consensus, after last meeting’s surprise decision
of keeping the rates at the same level…
12:30am (NY Time) AU RBA Rate Decision Forecast 4.25% Previous
4.25%
ACTION: AUD/USD SELL 4.00% / BUY 4.25% (Unchanged)
ACTION: AUD/USD SELL 4.00% / BUY 4.25% (Unchanged)
The Trade Plan
If RBA decides to keep rates unchanged, we will BUY AUDUSD… If RBA cuts rates, we should also see a strong reaction in the market to SELL the AUD as the market will be surprised.
Important Note: The only time I´d recommend a spike trade is when there are so much momentum pushing this currency that regardless of spread and slippage, you should end up in profit if you just hold on to the trade.
The MarketWith Australian economy facing ever increasing pressure from the slower growth globally and specially in China, AUD is expected to correct its recent bullish trend in the long-term; however, with Fed Bernanke igniting the hope for another QE during his 3/26 speech, AUD could remain resilient for the time being…
Market is expecting RBA to cut rates at least once during the next 3 meetings, and as of today, there is a 40% probability for RBA to cut rates today; therefore, expect market to react on either decision… if we get a surprise cut, expect to see AUDUSD drop… on the other hand, if RBA keeps rates unchanged, then expect AUDUSD to jump up.
Additional Thought
AUD will probably not show much of retracement. However, beware of the “Buy on rumor, Sell on news” market condition should we get an as expected release.
Primary currency pair: AUD/USD
Forecast: 4.25
Previous: 4.25
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -0.25 [SELL]
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +0.25 [BUY]
There are 24 estimates. As of I'm typing it, all economists expect them to keep the rate unchanged at 4.25% level.
So if Australia cuts the rates ( -0.25 trigger) to 4.00% or lower, AUD/USD should go down by at least 50 pips. If they raise the rates to 4.50% or higher ( +0.25 trigger), AUD/USD should go up by at least 50 pips.
Normally I don't bother with interest rates if there is no split in consensus; however, there might be a slight chance for a surprise. It will most likely be a no trade but if you have nothing to do and want to prepare to this report, go for it.
As always with the interest rates, be careful and do not overtrade it.
Book : Getting Started in Currency Trading - Michael Duane Archer
Book : Forex Essentials in 15 Trades - John M. Bland
Book : The Forex Edge - James Dicks
If RBA decides to keep rates unchanged, we will BUY AUDUSD… If RBA cuts rates, we should also see a strong reaction in the market to SELL the AUD as the market will be surprised.
Important Note: The only time I´d recommend a spike trade is when there are so much momentum pushing this currency that regardless of spread and slippage, you should end up in profit if you just hold on to the trade.
The MarketWith Australian economy facing ever increasing pressure from the slower growth globally and specially in China, AUD is expected to correct its recent bullish trend in the long-term; however, with Fed Bernanke igniting the hope for another QE during his 3/26 speech, AUD could remain resilient for the time being…
Market is expecting RBA to cut rates at least once during the next 3 meetings, and as of today, there is a 40% probability for RBA to cut rates today; therefore, expect market to react on either decision… if we get a surprise cut, expect to see AUDUSD drop… on the other hand, if RBA keeps rates unchanged, then expect AUDUSD to jump up.
Additional Thought
AUD will probably not show much of retracement. However, beware of the “Buy on rumor, Sell on news” market condition should we get an as expected release.
Primary currency pair: AUD/USD
Forecast: 4.25
Previous: 4.25
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -0.25 [SELL]
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +0.25 [BUY]
There are 24 estimates. As of I'm typing it, all economists expect them to keep the rate unchanged at 4.25% level.
So if Australia cuts the rates ( -0.25 trigger) to 4.00% or lower, AUD/USD should go down by at least 50 pips. If they raise the rates to 4.50% or higher ( +0.25 trigger), AUD/USD should go up by at least 50 pips.
Normally I don't bother with interest rates if there is no split in consensus; however, there might be a slight chance for a surprise. It will most likely be a no trade but if you have nothing to do and want to prepare to this report, go for it.
As always with the interest rates, be careful and do not overtrade it.
Book : Getting Started in Currency Trading - Michael Duane Archer
Book : Forex Essentials in 15 Trades - John M. Bland
Book : The Forex Edge - James Dicks
Nessun commento:
Posta un commento