US Advanced GDP 4/27/12 – Forex News
Here is the forecast for the US Advanced GDP q/q :
8:30am (NY Time) US Advance GDP q/qForecast 2.5% Previous 3.0%
ACTION: SELL EURUSD 3.3% / BUY EURUSD 2.6%
DEFINITION:
“GDP, which is defined (from wikipedia) as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP number has a direct effect on the Interest rate of the currency, it is one of the news indicators that affects FOMC’s decision directly.”
The Trade Plan
We are looking for a deviation between 0.3% ~ 0.5% from the forecasted figure of 3.0%. Therefore if we get a 3.3% on the 1st quarter GDP, it would be US Dollar positive. We will SELL EURUSD. However, if we get a 2.6% release or worse, then we would be BUY EURUSD. We’ll be looking to trade this release based on my Retracement Trading Method; since this is a high impact release, strong market volatility is expected immediately after the release.
If US GDP Annualized comes out at 1.8 or less ( -0.7 trigger), USD/JPY should go down by about 20 pips. If it comes out at +3.2 or higher ( +0.7 trigger), USD/JPY should go up by about 20 pips.
Based on 85 estimates, both median and average estimate is 2.5%. The highest estimate is 3.6% (one estimate), then 3.2% (one estimate), then 3.0% (three estimates). The lowest estimate is 1.2% (one estimate), then 1.8% (two estimates), then 1.9% (one estimate). One standard deviation is 0.3%.
This is the first release out of the three versions of the US GDP, and if the trigger is hit, we may see some price action. Unfortunately, because the Advance GDP happens only once every three months, there is not much data I can look at so it's hard to estimate the exact size of the spike. Nevertheless, I don't think you could possibly lose money with a such deviation. At minimum it's good enough to give a try. On the other hand, don't expect huge spikes because U.S. is not ready for any changes in interest rates anytime soon so spikes are very muted now.
Three months ago it came out at 2.8% vs 3.0% expected and there was almost no price action. No trade anyway.
Six months ago it came out as expected so it was a no trade.
Nine months ago it came out at 1.3 vs 1.6 expected, and while we saw only 10 pip spike, USD/JPY was on a sell move for a total of over 40 pips within next 30 minutes. Based on the deviation alone, it was a no trade, of course.
BOOKS BESTSELLER
I, Steve: Steve Jobs in His Own Words (hardie grant books) - Steve Jobs - EUR 9,57
Steve Jobs: A Biography - Walter Isaacson - EUR 20,65
8:30am (NY Time) US Advance GDP q/qForecast 2.5% Previous 3.0%
ACTION: SELL EURUSD 3.3% / BUY EURUSD 2.6%
DEFINITION:
“GDP, which is defined (from wikipedia) as “the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.” GDP number has a direct effect on the Interest rate of the currency, it is one of the news indicators that affects FOMC’s decision directly.”
The Trade Plan
We are looking for a deviation between 0.3% ~ 0.5% from the forecasted figure of 3.0%. Therefore if we get a 3.3% on the 1st quarter GDP, it would be US Dollar positive. We will SELL EURUSD. However, if we get a 2.6% release or worse, then we would be BUY EURUSD. We’ll be looking to trade this release based on my Retracement Trading Method; since this is a high impact release, strong market volatility is expected immediately after the release.
If US GDP Annualized comes out at 1.8 or less ( -0.7 trigger), USD/JPY should go down by about 20 pips. If it comes out at +3.2 or higher ( +0.7 trigger), USD/JPY should go up by about 20 pips.
Based on 85 estimates, both median and average estimate is 2.5%. The highest estimate is 3.6% (one estimate), then 3.2% (one estimate), then 3.0% (three estimates). The lowest estimate is 1.2% (one estimate), then 1.8% (two estimates), then 1.9% (one estimate). One standard deviation is 0.3%.
This is the first release out of the three versions of the US GDP, and if the trigger is hit, we may see some price action. Unfortunately, because the Advance GDP happens only once every three months, there is not much data I can look at so it's hard to estimate the exact size of the spike. Nevertheless, I don't think you could possibly lose money with a such deviation. At minimum it's good enough to give a try. On the other hand, don't expect huge spikes because U.S. is not ready for any changes in interest rates anytime soon so spikes are very muted now.
Three months ago it came out at 2.8% vs 3.0% expected and there was almost no price action. No trade anyway.
Six months ago it came out as expected so it was a no trade.
Nine months ago it came out at 1.3 vs 1.6 expected, and while we saw only 10 pip spike, USD/JPY was on a sell move for a total of over 40 pips within next 30 minutes. Based on the deviation alone, it was a no trade, of course.
BOOKS BESTSELLER
I, Steve: Steve Jobs in His Own Words (hardie grant books) - Steve Jobs - EUR 9,57
Steve Jobs: A Biography - Walter Isaacson - EUR 20,65
Nessun commento:
Posta un commento