EU ECB Interest Rate Decision

 December 6, 2012 

ECB (European Central Bank) will be rendering its rate decision today, and it will have a pivotal short term impact on the Euro dollar. However, it is widely believed that ECB will keep rates unchanged at 0.75%… Here´s the forecast:

7:45am (NY Time) EU ECB Rate Decision Forecast 0.75% Previous 0.75%
Deviation: 0.25% (SELL EUR 0.50%)

Definition:The rate at which the European Central Bank (ECB) charges banks in EU member states to borrow money. The minimum bid rate is an important tool in the ECB’s monetary policy and changes in this rate affect other interest rates in the EU banking system. The Minimum Bid Rate is also the The lower limit to the interest rates at which counterparties may submit bids in variable rate tenders.; The Main Refinancing (Refi Rate) is the rate on the main refinancing operations, often referred to as the refi rate. The level is determined by the ECB Governing Council. The Deposit Rate is the Interest rate at which credit institutions may at all times place overnight deposits with the national central bank. The deposit rate is normally 100 basis points below the minimum bid rate, thereby setting a lower limit on short-term money market rates.

The Trade Plan
ECB rate decision comes in two part, the first one is the 7:45am rate announcement followed by the 8:30am Press Conference where ECB chief Draghi issues the official statement on this rate decision. Since it is extremely unlikely to get a surprise from ECB (we stand corrected as Draghi has surprised the market twice during his first three rate meetings), there is usually no volatility following this release.

However, in the unlikely event that ECB surprises the market by cutting rates 25 basis points or more, then expect market to go into a selling frenzy and we should jump in immediately on a spike trade because no matter what the slippage or spread is, we will end up making positive pips. Of course, if ECB decides to keep rates unchanged to as expected at 0.75%, then we should see relatively no change in the market as this lack of move is expected… Please follow the recommendations above ONLY if ECB surprises the market.

Recommended Pairs: EURUSD.

Here´s the link to watch the Webcast Live at 8:30am EST – Highly recommended!
http://www.ecb.int/press/tvservices/webcast/html/webcast_121206.en.html

AU Employment Change

December 5, 2012 

Australia Employment Change is similar to U.S. NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) and Canada Employment Change, this is an economic indicator for the Employment Changes in Australia, here´s the forecast:

7:30pm (NY Time) AU Employment Change
Forecast 1.0K Previous 10.7K
AU Unemployment Rate
Forecast 5.5% Previous 5.4%
DEVIATION: 25K (BUY AUD @ +25K / SELL AUD @ -25K)

DEFINITION“Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation´s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP.”

The Trade Plan
The deviation that we are looking for is at least of 25K. Historically a 25K~30K of difference has produced about 40~50 pips of movement in the direction of the difference about 75% of the time. Expect to see the effect of this news to last minimum 45 minutes to 2 hours; typical news effect should last under 2 hours. One other important news to pay attention to is the Unemployment Rate, which is expected to be tick up at 5.5%. If we don´t get a conflict with the Employment Change, then we will proceed with the trading plan.

We´ll look to trade this using after news retracement trading method, we´ll wait for the market to retrace and stay out of the market during the release time. If we get a +25K of release, our bias will be to BUY AUD against other currencies; if we get a -25K of release, our bias will be to SELL AUD against stronger currencies. We´ll only enter after we see a decent retracement from the initial spike and if we get those release numbers…

Recommended Pairs: AUDUSD, AUDJPY

AUD/USD - Australian dollar / US Dollar

Resistances : 

Weekly 1.055 ; 

Daily 1.05 ; 

Hourly 1.0485

Supports : 

Weekly 1.0395 ; 

Daily 1.0435 ; 

Hourly 1.045

BOOKS
Attacking Currency Trends: How to Anticipate and Trade Big Moves in the Forex Market - Greg Michalowski - EUR 40,41  

I believe 99% of the forex market "mentors" are cons and exploiters, nothing short of ruthless and heartless, the cons have burnt me out of precious moneys, however I read this book(reading again now). I have never ever been in the pips like I am now and recouped most of what the forex crooks robbed me of and it cost me all of 40 usd on Amazon...and I dont open an email about forex unless its my statement, my forex vision is purged of stochastics, RSI, MACD etc clutter and all the associated gumph, I found a simple sharp reliable strategy with this book.

Charts look so clear to me now, I feel like I am seeing inside the market makers mind, After reading this book I can look at a chart, flick thru time frames, through on fib re-tracements correctly and find entry and reentry points onto trends and the greatest thing is... I dont climb off the trend after what I use too think was respectable pips either... I now re-enter and make more.

I can honestly say that I was not profitable before I read this book. Since I got it I have put my 2 trading friends onto it, we all have bought a copy now, and is it coincidence that all 3 of us are trading in the money now...

If you would appreciate some history and roots of technical analysis development and advancement; the first 20 pages are fascinating and are a highlight of nothing less than a revolutionary technical approach to the markets in evaluating risks and identifying targets. It makes one really really grateful for the charting technology we have now at our finger tips. It took 5 reads to grasp, but even if you skipped the whole "Market Profile system" in early pages it wouldnt matter. the book is fantastic.

If I lived in the States I would try and meet the author, its so apparent that this book was not written to make money, its never going to sell enough to be lucrative, how many traders are there out there..., and I am sure he can "print" money with his trend surfing skills, why would he author a book if it wasnt for sincere interest in helping people like me. So I say thank you Greg and some guy "ChaosTrader63" on youtube that directed me to the book.

UK Services PMI

December 5, 2012 

We´ll be trading the UK Services Purchasing Manager Index today at 4:28am (NY Time). This is a leading indicator similar to the Manufacturing PMI that was released early this week, here´s the forecast:

4:28am (NY Time) UK Services PMI Forecast 51.0 Previous 50.6
Deviation: 2.5 (BUY GBP 53.5 / SELL GBP 49.0)

DEFINITION:
The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) Services Purchasing Manager´s Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation´s currency. To produce the index, purchasing managers are surveyed on a number of subjects including employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Traders watch these surveys closely because purchasing managers, by virtue of their jobs, have early access to data about their company´s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

The Services PMI is tradable with a minimum deviation of 2.5 between the forecast and the actual release. If we get at least 53.5 or better, we could see some demand in the GBP and we will consider BUYING GBP against weaker currencies. If we get a 49.0 or lower, GBP could weaken and we should look to SELL GBP against stronger currencies.

Recommended Pairs : GBPUSD, GBPJPY

GBP/USD - British Pound / US Dollar

Resistances : Weekly 1.6175 ; Daily 1.615 ; Hourly 1.6125

Supports : Weekly 1.5995 ; Daily 1.605 ; Hourly 1.6085

BOOKS
Currency Trading in the Forex and Futures Markets - Carley Garner - EUR 28,81 

Carley Garner has created the perfect book for anyone interested in getting started in currency trading. Whether you are an experienced trader of stocks or options looking to diversify markets you can trade or you are completely new to trading in general this book will get you on the right path very quickly.

The book warns novices of both the dangers and possible rewards of trading currencies. "The goal is to give you a realistic idea of what to expect in order to avoid becoming a statistic".

The author takes you through currency trading step by step from understanding the difference between FOREX and currency futures to how to trade them. The reader will get an understanding of each currency pair and a table with each three letter abbreviation for currencies and the order in which they are paired. You are advised to stick with the currency 'majors' for liquidity and avoid the 'minors' so you are not hurt with the wide bid/ask spreads in low volume markets.
Currency pair values per contract are $100,000 per standard contract, $10,000 per mini contract, and $1,000 per micro. The book also has a table for currency futures contracts.

While FOREX traders are able to leverage their trades with 50 to 1 margin the author warns traders about the dangers of leverage and how it can wipe out your account. There is always an equal downside risk for every possible upside profit with leverage and currency traders would be wise to trade appropriate position sizes that does not put their entire account at risk in one trade.

Carley warns readers that many FOREX brokers that claim to be commission free are really just taking the other side of your trades as off exchange trades instead of executing your trades on the open market like currency futures brokers do through a centralized and regulated exchange. Many FOREX brokers make their money through the bid/ask spreads that you buy and sell at when getting in and out of trades. Also FOREX trading has counter party risks while currency futures trading is guaranteed by the exchange to make all parties whole.

"FX and futures traders are not buying or selling an asset; instead they are trading a liability that is dependent, or derived, from the value of the underlying asset; thus, they are known as derivatives."

She also covers different technical indicators to use in your trading and how they measure price to give buy and sell signals. You will also get the basic styles of trading and what usually works in the currency markets.

I strongly advise any trader interested in trading currency markets to first read this book by Carley Garner before you venture into those waters.

Currency Trading in the Forex and Futures Markets - Carley Garner - EUR 28,81