June 13, 2012

8:30am (NY Time) US Core Retail Sales Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.1%
DEVIATION: 0.5% (BUY USD 0.6% / SELL USD -0.4%)

We´ll be getting the U.S. Core Retail Sales (and Retail Sales) figure out tomorrow. As high impact news releases are concerned, Retail Sales make up about 2/3 of U.S. GDP (Gross Domestic Product); Core Retail Sales report excludes Auto sales which comprises 20% of total retail sales. Therefore, we are more focused on daily consumer spending on goods found in such places as department stores, gas stations, and restaurants.

DEFINITION:“(Retail Sales Core) Derivative of Retail Sales that excludes the Automobile Sales component. Automobile Sales make up roughly 25% of Retail Sales, but they can be very volatile from month to month and can distort the picture. Retail Sales with the exclusion of this volatile component is thought to be a better indicator of the underlying trend in consumer spending.”

The Trade PlanThe plan to trade this release is straight forward. We are going to wait for 0.8% release or better to BUY USD, or a -0.2% or worse to SELL USD. If we get a in-between release, we´ll need to look at the pre-release market condition and sentiment in order to make a decision, or just stay out of the market altogether.

Recommended Pairs : USDJPY or EURUSD.

USDJPY
RESISTENCES :Weekly 80.55 ; Daily 80.15 ; Hourly 79.75
SUPPORTS :Weekly 78.65 ; Daily 79.2 ; Hourly 79.5

BOOKS

Getting Started in Currency Trading: Winning in Today's FOREX Market - Michael Duane Archer - EUR 13,49
0470602120