EU ECB Interest Rate

ECB (European Central Bank) will be rendering its rate decision today, and it will have a pivotal short term impact on the Euro dollar. However, it is widely believed that ECB will keep rate unchanged at 1.00%… Here´s the forecast:
7:45am (NY Time) EU ECB Rate Decision Forecast 1.00% Previous 1.00%
Deviation: 0.25% (SELL EUR 0.75%)



Definition:The rate at which the European Central Bank (ECB) charges banks in EU member states to borrow money. The minimum bid rate is an important tool in the ECB’s monetary policy and changes in this rate affect other interest rates in the EU banking system. The Minimum Bid Rate is also the The lower limit to the interest rates at which counterparties may submit bids in variable rate tenders.; The Main Refinancing (Refi Rate) is the rate on the main refinancing operations, often referred to as the refi rate. The level is determined by the ECB Governing Council. The Deposit Rate is the Interest rate at which credit institutions may at all times place overnight deposits with the national central bank. The deposit rate is normally 100 basis points below the minimum bid rate, thereby setting a lower limit on short-term money market rates.


The Trade Plan
ECB rate decision comes in two part, the first one is the 7:45am rate announcement followed by the 8:30am Press Conference where ECB chief Draghi issues the official statement on this rate decision. Since it is extremely unlikely to get a surprise from ECB (we stand corrected as Draghi has surprised the market twice during his first three rate meetings), there is usually no volatility following this release.
However, in the unlikely event that ECB surprises the market by cutting rates 25 basis points or more, then expect market to go into shock and we should jump in immediately on a spike trade because no matter what the slippage or spread is, we will end up making positive pips. Of course, if ECB decides to leave rates unchanged at 1.00% as expected, then we should stay out of the market. Please follow the recommendations above ONLY if ECB surprises the market.


Here´s the link to watch the Webcast Live at 8:30am EST – Highly recommended!
http://www.ecb.int/press/tvservices/webcast/html/webcast_120503.en.html