AU Employment Change

June 6, 2012

Australia Employment Change is similar to U.S. NFP (Nonfarm Payroll) and Canada Employment Change, this is an economic indicator for the Employment Changes in Australia, here´s the forecast:
9:30pm (NY Time) AU Employment Change
Forecast 1.0K Previous 15.5K
AU Unemployment Rate
Forecast 5.1% Previous 4.9%
DEVIATION: 25K (BUY AUD @ +25K / SELL AUD @ -25K)



DEFINITION“Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation´s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP.”


The Trade PlanThe deviation that we are looking for is at least of 25K. Historically a 25K~30K of difference has produced about 40~50 pips of movement in the direction of the difference about 75% of the time. Expect to see the effect of this news to last minimum 45 minutes to 2 hours; typical news effect should last under 2 hours. One other important news to pay attention to is the Unemployment Rate, which is expected to be at 5.1%. If we don´t get a conflict with the Employment Change, then we will proceed with the trading plan.
We´ll look to trade this using after news retracement trading method, we´ll wait for the market to retrace and stay out of the market during the release time. If we get a +25K of release, our bias will be to BUY AUD against other currencies; if we get a -25K of release, our bias will be to SELL AUD against stronger currencies. We´ll only enter after we see a decent retracement from the initial spike and if we get those release numbers.

Recommended Pairs :  AUDUSD , AUDJPY

Resistances  :  Weekly 0.997 , Daily 0.9935 , Hourly 0.988

Supports      : Weekly 0.97    , Daily  0.9785 , Hourly 0.9825