US Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) Employment 03/09/12
8:30am (NY Time) US NF Employment Forecast 210K Previous 243K
8:30am (NY Time) US Unemployment Rate Forecast 8.3% Previous 8.3%
ACTION: 280K SELL AUDUSD / 140K BUY EURUSD
8:30am (NY Time) US Unemployment Rate Forecast 8.3% Previous 8.3%
ACTION: 280K SELL AUDUSD / 140K BUY EURUSD
If we get a conflicting release, then well wait and see how the market reacts first. If there is an overwhelming sentiment driving the market, well get plenty of opportunities for an entry if we just wait for 5 minutes after the release; you´ll get a much clearer view.
Previous: +243K
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): --- [SELL]
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): --- [BUY]
Based on 94 estimates, median estimate is 210K and the average estimate is 212K. The lowest estimates are 125 K and 130K (one vote each), and then next lowest is 170K (one vote). The highest estimate is 275 K (two votes), and then 255K (one vote). One standard deviation is +/- 25 K.
This time I don't want to make recommendations on this report. I hope we will have a nice deviation again to see how it's going to react. I was not impressed how it worked last month. Part of the reason why the price action is so muted is because it is expected there will be no interest rate changes this year period - so it doesn't really matter if it comes out good or bad yet. I hope it's going to be a few more months like this and maybe then we will see U.S. reports back performing well like they used to a few years ago.
If you want to scalp, I guess you can try +/- 60K triggers. I can't really see how you can lose money although certainly there is always some risk involved.
Last month it came out at 243K vs 140K expected but we only saw about 15 pip spike within first minute on USD/JPY, although then the price was slowly but surely going up.
Two months ago we had a deviation of about +50 K but USD/JPY did not make impressive move - it moved by about 10 pips.
Three months ago it came out as expected so it was a no trade.
Four months ago it came out too close to expectations so it was a no trade.
Five months ago it came out at 103K vs 73K expected, and USD/JPY moved up by a bit over 20 pips. It was a no trade anyway.
Six months ago it came out at 0K vs +68K expected and we only saw about 30 pip spike. It was a little bit disappointing.
Seven months ago we didn't have a huge deviation but for some reasons the price was going down before the announcement that came out better than expected, causing a massive spike up on USD/JPY. That was very unusual.
Eight months ago came out at +18 K vs. +90 K expected (-72 deviation) with no deviation on unemployment rate, and USD/JPY moved down by over 65 pips, and the total move within the first 30 minutes was almost 100 pips.
Nine months ago it came out at 54 K vs 165K expected, and we saw over 40 pip move on USD/JPY. It seems the number was leaked or highly anticipated because USD/JPY was going down minutes before the report too. It was a really nice move considering conflicting unemployment rate that grew from expected 8.9% to 9.1%.
Ten months ago it came out at 244 K vs 185 K expected, and we saw about 50 pip spike on USD/JPY, despite of conflicting deviation on unemployment rate. It was a good price action but such conflicts can screw up the trade really badly.
As always, there is also a possibility of a nice conflict with the Revision number.
Please remember that a deviation of 0.2 on the unemployment number can move USD/JPY on its own. A positive deviation of unemployment rate is bad for USD because it means higher unemployment. However, a positive deviation on the employment change or revision is good for USD because it means more people got jobs.
Good luck!
Nessun commento:
Posta un commento