giovedì 7 febbraio 2013

CAD Employment Change




February 8, 2013 

CAD Employment Change


We´ll be getting the Canadian Employment Change release number tomorrow, here is the forecast:


8:30am (NY Time) CAD Employment Change Forecast

 4.2K Previous 39.8K

Unemployment Rate 7.2% Previous 7.1%

DEVIATION: 25K (BUY CAD @ 30K / SELL CAD @ -20K)

DEFINITION “Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation´s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP. This report is the first of the month that relates to labor conditions, making it susceptible to big surprises.”

The Trade Plan

The CAD Employment Change report will be released at 8:30am sharp today (changed from the usual 7:00am). What I am looking for is a minimum deviation of around 25K, or the difference between the Forecast number (4.2K) versus the actual release number; if we get a positive 30K of release, we should see demand for the CAD rise, therefore we should BUY CAD against weaker currencies at the time; however, if we get a negative deviation, such as -20K or worse, we should see some weakness in the CAD, and that will be my cue to SELL CAD against stronger currencies at the time.

I´ll also pay close attention to the unemployment rate, which is expected to rise to 7.2%. As long as this number does not conflict with the Employment Changes, we should follow the direction of the news release. If we get a conflict, such as better Employment Changes but higher Unemployment Rate, then we´ll need to look at the context of the market before taking the trade.

Expected move during first 20 minutes after the release: 40 pips or more

Actions:
BuyUSDCADif actual figure is or is below-15.5 (k)
SellUSDCADif actual figure is or is above24.5 (k)

Recommended Pairs : USDCAD, GBPCAD.


USD/CAD - US Dollar / Canadian Dollar

ResistancesWeekly 1.0035 ; Daily 0.999 ; Hourly 0.995

Supports : Weekly 0.99 ; Daily 0.992 ; Hourly 0.993


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