AU Retail Sales

February 5, 2013

AU Retail Sales

We´ll be getting the Retail Sales figure from Australia today once again, and if you´ve been following news out of Australia, you´d know that Retail Sales has been a sticky point for Aussie economy and a strong improvement may change the short term trend for the currency. Here´s the forecast:

7:30 pm NY Time AU Retail Sales Forecast 0,3%

Previous - 0,1%

DEVIATION : 0,5% ( BUY AUD 0,8% / SELL AUD - 0,2% )

DEFINITION “Measures the value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation´s currency because Retail Sales make up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Traders payclose attention to Retail Sales because it is usually the first significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer behavior and is susceptible to surprises.”

The Trade Plan

The deviation that we are looking for the Australian Retail Sales m/m release is for a minimum of 0.5%. If we get a 0.8% (or better) we´ll look to buy and if we get -0.2% (or worse), we´d look to SELL. There is a high probability of market movement of over 50 pips in the next 2 hours if we get our deviation. With RBA releasing its interest rate shortly, and the fact that China may cut RRR rate soon, we should only trade if we get our deviation…

Recommended Pairs :  AUDUSD, AUDCAD

AUD/USD - Australian dollar / US Dollar

Resistances : Weekly 1.0475 ; Daily 1.045 ; Hourly 1.042

Supports : Weekly 1.0345 ; Daily 1.036 ; Hourly 1.038

BOOKS

Currency Trading in the FOREX and Futures Markets - Carley Garner - EUR 28,67


Carley Garner has created the perfect book for anyone interested in getting started in currency trading. Whether you are an experienced trader of stocks or options looking to diversify markets you can trade or you are completely new to trading in general this book will get you on the right path very quickly.

The book warns novices of both the dangers and possible rewards of trading currencies. "The goal is to give you a realistic idea of what to expect in order to avoid becoming a statistic".

The author takes you through currency trading step by step from understanding the difference between FOREX and currency futures to how to trade them. The reader will get an understanding of each currency pair and a table with each three letter abbreviation for currencies and the order in which they are paired. You are advised to stick with the currency 'majors' for liquidity and avoid the 'minors' so you are not hurt with the wide bid/ask spreads in low volume markets.
Currency pair values per contract are $100,000 per standard contract, $10,000 per mini contract, and $1,000 per micro. The book also has a table for currency futures contracts.

While FOREX traders are able to leverage their trades with 50 to 1 margin the author warns traders about the dangers of leverage and how it can wipe out your account. There is always an equal downside risk for every possible upside profit with leverage and currency traders would be wise to trade appropriate position sizes that does not put their entire account at risk in one trade.

Carley warns readers that many FOREX brokers that claim to be commission free are really just taking the other side of your trades as off exchange trades instead of executing your trades on the open market like currency futures brokers do through a centralized and regulated exchange. Many FOREX brokers make their money through the bid/ask spreads that you buy and sell at when getting in and out of trades. Also FOREX trading has counter party risks while currency futures trading is guaranteed by the exchange to make all parties whole.

"FX and futures traders are not buying or selling an asset; instead they are trading a liability that is dependent, or derived, from the value of the underlying asset; thus, they are known as derivatives."

She also covers different technical indicators to use in your trading and how they measure price to give buy and sell signals. You will also get the basic styles of trading and what usually works in the currency markets.

I strongly advise any trader interested in trading currency markets to first read this book by Carley Garner before you venture into those waters.
Currency Trading in the FOREX and Futures Markets - Carley Garner - EUR 28,67