May 11, 2012 – Forex News Trading
We´ll be getting the Canadian Employment Change release number tomorrow, here is
the forecast:
8:30am (NY Time) CAD Employment Change Forecast 13K Previous 82.3k
Unemployment Rate 7.3%
DEVIATION: 25K (BUY CAD 40K / SELL CAD @ -10K)
The Trade Plan
The Canadian Employment Change report will be released at 8:30am sharp today (changed from the usual 7:00am). What I am looking for is a minimum deviation of around 25K, or the difference between the Forecast number (13K) versus the actual release number; if we get a positive 40K of release, we should see demand for the CAD rise, therefore we should BUY CAD against weaker currencies at the time; however, if we get a negative deviation, such as -10K or worse, we should see some weakness in the CAD, and that will be my cue to SELL CAD against stronger currencies at the time.
I´ll also pay close attention to the unemployment rate, which is expected to drop at 7.3%. As long as this number does not conflict with the Employment Changes, we should follow the direction of the news release. If we get a conflict, such as better Employment Changes but higher Unemployment Rate, then we´ll need to look at the context of the market before taking the trade.
DEFINITION“Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation´s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP. This report is the first of the month that relates to labor conditions, making it susceptible to big surprises
Following four months of little change, employment increased by 82,000 in March, mostly in full-time work. This brought the unemployment rate down 0.2 percentage points to 7.2%.
Compared with 12 months earlier, employment was up 1.1% or 197,000. Almost all of this growth was in full-time employment, up 181,000 (+1.3%), while part-time employment edged up. The total number of hours worked rose 1.6% over the same period.
Good for currency; USDCAD will tend to go down.
8:30am (NY Time) CAD Employment Change Forecast 13K Previous 82.3k
Unemployment Rate 7.3%
DEVIATION: 25K (BUY CAD 40K / SELL CAD @ -10K)
The Trade Plan
The Canadian Employment Change report will be released at 8:30am sharp today (changed from the usual 7:00am). What I am looking for is a minimum deviation of around 25K, or the difference between the Forecast number (13K) versus the actual release number; if we get a positive 40K of release, we should see demand for the CAD rise, therefore we should BUY CAD against weaker currencies at the time; however, if we get a negative deviation, such as -10K or worse, we should see some weakness in the CAD, and that will be my cue to SELL CAD against stronger currencies at the time.
I´ll also pay close attention to the unemployment rate, which is expected to drop at 7.3%. As long as this number does not conflict with the Employment Changes, we should follow the direction of the news release. If we get a conflict, such as better Employment Changes but higher Unemployment Rate, then we´ll need to look at the context of the market before taking the trade.
DEFINITION“Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation´s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP. This report is the first of the month that relates to labor conditions, making it susceptible to big surprises
Following four months of little change, employment increased by 82,000 in March, mostly in full-time work. This brought the unemployment rate down 0.2 percentage points to 7.2%.
Compared with 12 months earlier, employment was up 1.1% or 197,000. Almost all of this growth was in full-time employment, up 181,000 (+1.3%), while part-time employment edged up. The total number of hours worked rose 1.6% over the same period.
Good for currency; USDCAD will tend to go down.
Nessun commento:
Posta un commento